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It’s incorrect to say there hasn’t been suggestions of a return to normality GFS in particular has teased a few times in last few weeks. There’s now good agreement for a large pressure rise to W/NW of British Isles, it doesn’t appear to be positioning right for warmth at least early days especially in east which could be subject to cool E/NE winds on periphery of where high centres. A little more patience I think needed, probably more likely into June early indications look pleasant for early summer.
Evening all...I'm back early- couldn't resist a cheeky look at the latest runs.
I'm actually feeling very positive by what I've seen today, and it seems the pub run is continuing the positive developments with high pressure building in as early as day 8.
I really get the sense that a big change is in the offing now as this has been shown for several runs now. The models have toyed with keeping the high to our west but seem to settling on moving it further east now and over the UK. The GFS 18Z looks excellent towards the end of the run.