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I've started this thread a little earlier than usual, given we are about to see a couple of very chilly nights for the time of year, with potential for grass frost tonight in sheltered parts i.e. a ground frost with mins of 1-3 degrees in frost prone spots, tomorrow night could indeed bring an air frost to sheltered northern parts as well - 0 degrees. Not highly unusual, but not something we tend to see until second half of September.
Please use this thread to record your first occasion of frost this upcoming season, ground and air.
Here we tend to see out first ground frost last week of September, and air frost third week of October, in an average year. Earliest air frost in recent years was 23 Sept 2012 when we recorded a very cold -3 degrees. Not once in winter 2015/2016 did we see anything colder than -3 degrees!
Yesterday we had Tropical Storm Irma declared and over the last 24 hours or so we have seen steady strengthening such that it now has sustained winds of 70mph and should be declared a hurricane later today.
Eventual track at this stage is unknown (it will barely pass the islands in a week) however the amplitude of a trough over the eastern US at the time appears to be key. If the flow amplifies then Irma gets caught and recurves (threat only to Bermuda and the Outer Banks) however if the flow flattens then ridging is stronger and anything from a Carolina/Florida hit is possible.
NHC brings it to a category 3 within 5 days.
This mornings Euro at day 6..
*One thing to note is that being a long track system it will probably end up pretty large with a very large hurricane wind radius. If it does make land anywhere, it's something to bear in mind.
It should be fantastic for our seasonal ACE total though.
Big problem here is rainfall, Texas is looking at catastrophic flooding from Harvey (will definitely be retired) as the folk of Texas will be measuring their rainfall in feet rather than inches.
As of the last update, pressure down to 1003mb.
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