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Recent Posts
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Just another week day under it then….seems like that’s become the consistency. Trough for another 6-7 days over parts of E+W better the further north and west you are and after that who knows. 

 

Alderc
Alderc | 1 Minute Ago
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Few low-confidence SLGTs it seems

CONVECTIVEWEATHER.CO.UK

Forecasting thunderstorms and severe convective weather across the British Isles and Ireland for up to the next 5 days.

 

Jamie M
Jamie M | 7 Minutes Ago

I remember the 1999 one, caused flash flooding in tulse hill, and flooded the pub I was working in.

alexisj9
alexisj9 | 7 Minutes Ago
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Chance of a weak storm late afternoon today many in the South East but also across Midlands and Wales. 

 

Modelling is a bit mixed as to where and any storms are likely to be more spring like with temperatures below 20C. Forecast SkewTs show marginally convective environment in the South East also glow level convergence zone and not really a convective environment in the Midlands and Wales. Some cloud cover and temperature forecasts are clearly wrong on some models showing peak temperatures below current readings equally the development  of the low across Central parts is different on different models. BBC and MetOffice charts suggest Low topped storm development in the low pressure tail over north midlands.

Key areas to watch are London and perhaps Birmingham to Manchester area. Not really expecting much more than  weaker storms with low temperatures. Things complicated by global models which tend to hold maritime island (UK) temperatures too low during peak summer and the usual East West movement speed being wrong. When a low pressure is forecast to become enhanced over the UK then forecast modelling tends to struggle so worth a radar watch with a risk of a weak spout like tornado but there is every chance nothing will appear either as its not a strong convective environment. Cloud cover ,heat island effects , low tropopause, surface convergence all likely to play a part, worth a heads up though.

BrickFielder
BrickFielder | 13 Minutes Ago
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Going on the ECM - yes, you are right there. Trough is already over the UK as we speak, and isn't forecast to clear for 7/8 days on the 00z ECM!

Very wet:


UKMO has it finally filling and moving away by Friday next week:




GEM looks more promising by Thursday:


 

mb018538
mb018538 | 21 Minutes Ago

But the later part of the ecm has now finally edged towards the more very warm dry summery mean!!☀️🌡

sheikhy
sheikhy | 23 Minutes Ago
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