After a chilly end to the week it will turn milder over the weekend as winds turn southwesterly, but with it, cloudier skies with some rain or showers, particularly for the north and west.
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Wednesday saw storms spawn a tornado in Cheshire, followed by Storm Aurore in the evening bringing a month's worth of rain and flash-flooding across southern England. Today sees a risk of coastal flooding along North Sea coasts.
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December 1990 though it was quite mild I remember eighth of December 1990 was a Saturday and the day before we had quite heavy rain however overnight into Saturday there was a big snowfall I remember because I was going to go and watch Villa against Tottenham. I really remember this because on that day and a few days after that cars couldn’t even go down our road because they were stuck in snow I was 12 at the time also I think it was one of the biggest snowfall since Jan 1987 and before February 1991.
The huge expense in trying to combat Global Warmng- through taxes on Carbon, Net Zero- thus helping to stop the higher-latitude Westerlies "Getting out of hand" and causing irreparable coastal erosion in Britain and other parts of northern Europe- is likely to be in vain if we cannot get China and india to curb their CO2 emissions. But at a fraction of the cost, Britain and other countries working together might find another means of taming (and perhaps even reversing) Global Warming by implementing geo-engineering measures that weaken the Westerlies, reduce the number and intensity of strong "warm-front conveyers" associated with depressions that push a little too much heat and wind into high latitudes! If we can reduce the number and intensity of depressions and strong south-west (and southerly) winds moving into the Arctic basin you help preserve the ice there (it may hopefully recover) and that ice then reflects heat from the Sun as it persists through the summer- keeping the Earth cooler.
Some measures to do this include the following:
1) Building a 4,000 metre-high wall (500 metres thick); running north to south from northern Quebec to Atlanta (it can be built just off-shore to avoid it going over valuable farmland and communities). This would be a huge undertaking costing $$100 billions but it would be cheaper than all the huge efforts to combat Global Warming running into $$ Trillions. A 4 km-high wall would be effective at intercepting the Westerlies where they are stronger- the force of the wind against this high wall would be a very effective sink for Westerly AAM- leading to weaker Westerlies downstream. The high wall would also create an upper trough (with depressions and associated Westerlies blowing further south) downstream, bringing rain to the parched Mediterranean and Israel whilst relieving Britain of damaging storms and coastal erosion (and brining about colder, drier winters in Britain, too). The Arctic would get a chance to cool, as would Siberia. That will preserve reflective ice-cover and prevent the Siberian permafrost thawing (and all that entails).
2) A cheaper, more practically feasible option (one that will require International Agreement) is to cover 2 million square miles of the Equatorial Atlantic and Pacific with floating mirrors- perhaps attached to the sea-bed by long chains so that they can't drift over fishing lanes, shipping areas or troucle coastal island communities. The mirrors would reflect away the Sun's heat (helping to keep the Earth cool) and the cooling of Equatorial waters would help weaken the zone of hot-rising air in the deep tropics. This would, in turn, weaken the converging North East and South East Trade Winds, reduce the addition of Westerly AAM to the global circulation and, thus, weaken the Westerly AAM available to furnish depressions and Westerlies in higher latitudes. Weaker Westerlies and depressions in the North means less "warm front conveyer belts", less Winter storminess and the Arctic being allowed to cool. That in turn means more reflective ice there (and also around Antarctica), which could be enormously effective at countering the greenhouse effects of rising CO2 levels. The Med and Israel will get much-needed rain, Britain and northern Europe will benefit from hard winter frosts to kill the bugs and from less coastal erosion. There will also be more decent summers in northern Europe.
However, as far as Climate Change is going, the Clock is Ticking and there is perhaps just forty years to prevent serious Global Warming and all that entails! At the moment a Quiet Sun is helping, by counterring the CO2 warming effect, in forty years time the strong Solar Sunspot Cycles will be back and the Sun will amplify Global Warming. It does not look like we can rely on China.
A dry night with mostly clear skies and calm
Temp 6.3c
So, almost all year round in both the Northern and Southern Hemispheres, there are no strong Westerlies over an extensive area between 36.9 degrees South and 36.9 degrees North, at leas not that impact the Earth's surface. This has been the case fairly consistently over the last decade. It means that Westerly AAM is generated over half the planet- in low latitudes where the Easterlies are most effective at adding Westerly AAM to the atmosphere by surface friction (or by easterlies blowing against mountains causing a mountain torque) as they blow far from the axis of Earth's rotation (think of sitting away from the centre of a see-saw). The surface Westerlies, which act as a sink for Westerly AAM all blow appreciably closer to the axis of Earth's rotation given they are restricted to the 40% most poleward sea and land surfaces of the Earth- and therefore they have to blow extra hard! This explains why the Westerlies have to blow stronger and more consistently in the North. And the warmer seas and oceans and retreated margins of Arctic ice help furnish stronger depressions that move in higher latitudes- and that, too, is consistent with the stronger Westerlies that blight our recent winters with so much rain, wind and mildness for those who like "Proper Winters".
Hotter, steamier conditions near the Equator add fuel to the rising air and thunderstorms that dominate the low- pressure areas there. That is expected with rising CO2 levels. Faster rising air near the Equator helps strengthen the North-East and South-East Trade Winds that converge on it- and hotter summers in whichever tropical areas are getting summer strengthens the Equatorial Easterly Jet-stream (about 5,000 metres above sea-level and able to blow against Kilimanjaro, the northern Andes and the mountains of Papua New Guinea). That, in turn means stronger sources of Westerly AAM extensively across the Tropics and sub-tropics- and a need for more persistent and strong Westerlies in higher Northern and Southern latitudes.
And the strong Westerlies in higher latitudes of the Southern Hemisphere, both at the surface and aloft explain the unusual extreme cold over interior Antarctica and the re-emergence of the Ozone Hole: These strong Westerlies, associated with deep depressions that encircle Antarctica (some below 930 millibars at the centre) form a barrier stopping frigid air leaking out towards Argentina, South Africa or Australia but they keep the frigid air over Antarctica pure- with little warmer air from lower latitudes getting through. The very frigid air continues to cool in the sunless winter over interior Antarctica (where skies are often clear and maximising heat-loss from the ice surfaces)- and so the extremely low winter temperatures (even lower than normal) at the South Pole are explained. Aloft, the tight vortex of circumpolar Westerlies intensifies during the Antarctic winter (helped by conditions below) and- in the absence of any sunlight- the Stratosphere over interior Antarctica gets intensely cold, that is, below -78C. This is cold enough for minute ice-crystals to form- which facilitate chemical reactions that destroy ozone in the presence of minute amounts of other pollutants (chlorine- based)- these happen when the Sun returns to the interior Antarctic stratosphere (August- September). With strong Stratospheric Westerlies encircling Antarctica ozone-rich upper air from lower latitudes cannot penetrate: Thus you have an Ozone Hole.
This concentration of the Westerlies in higher latitudes and mainly just Easterlies in the Tropics and sub-tropics, both in the Northern Hemisphere and Southern Hemisphere is associated with persistent high-pressure near 35 degrees North and 35 degrees South. So whilst Israel and California suffer droughts and summer heatwave, Britain has (mainly) wet mild autumns and winters and frequent flooding and storms, warm airmasses penetrate as far as Siberia even in winter and bring thaws (unheard of in the 1980's) but Antarctica suffers very extreme winter cold (average winter temperature in 2021 at the South Pole was -63C) and an Ozone Hole. Strong south-west winds from the Atlantic have penetrated right up towards the North Pole on occasion- raising the potential for complete ice-loss.
OK right, I’m going to make a prediction for early winter now. I’m sick of predicting covid infection rates, so back to the weather!
I think early November might be quite settled, but will be part of a global shift of patterns to a 4 wave blocked situation by the end of the month, which will cause cold weather across the UK, snow in the north and along the east coast primarily, I expect the cold spell to last well into December. Where we go from there, I haven’t a clue…we will see…
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