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Monthly weather forecast for the UK

Dry and sunny for most, quite cold at times especially in the south

Updated 6th November 2017 - Covering the period 13th November - 5th December

Overview

With a fair amount of cold anticyclonic weather especially affecting the south, mean temperatures are expected to come out about 1C below the 1981-2010 long-term average over much of central and southern England. For Scotland and Northern Ireland they will mostly be close to or fractionally above normal (0 to 0.5C above), with other areas close to or just below normal.

Rainfall totals are expected to be below average almost everywhere, with upland parts of south-western Britain seeing the largest negative rainfall anomalies. Rainfall is more likely to be close to normal in eastern Scotland and in East Anglia.

Sunshine totals will be above normal in most parts of the UK but with local variations depending on where fog patches prove slow to clear in anticyclonic spells. In Scotland and Northern Ireland sunshine is likely to be slightly above normal, but most significantly so over much of England and Wales, especially the west and south.

Monthly weather forecast
Temperature
Sunshine
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Monday 13th November to Sunday 19th November

High pressure will be quite dominant this week, but frontal systems will sometimes move around the northern and eastern flank of the high, especially early in the week, bringing bands of cloud and rain, but the rain will mostly be light, especially in the south. The 13th is expected to have a chilly north to north-westerly flow which will bring cold bright weather, with coastal showers, which may give some sleet and snow on higher ground, and there is a possibility of another brief northerly later in the week.

The high pressure is expected to become more dominant later in the week, with pressure also tending to build to the east of the British Isles, hindering the west-east movement of Atlantic weather systems. Britain will probably not experience much in the way of cold continental air, with the winds mostly blowing from the west or north-west or occasionally the north, but nonetheless with a weaker than normal westerly flow, temperatures are expected to be between 1 and 2C below the long-term normal over much of the country.

Rainfall totals will tend to be below normal but in eastern Scotland and East Anglia rainfall totals may reach near-average totals, depending on the extent of any northerly outbreaks.

Although anticyclonic gloom is quite common in November, the polar maritime incursions associated with systems moving around the periphery of the high should ensure that much of the UK ends up sunnier than average this week. It is especially likely to be sunny over much of England and Wales, especially the west and south.

Monday 20th November to Sunday 26th November

High pressure is again expected to be more dominant than usual early in the period, with mostly below-average temperatures, and the possibility of one or two cold blasts from the north or north-east, though it is unlikely that there will be widespread snowfall from these. It is expected to turn milder and more changeable later in the week, especially in the north, with high pressure slipping further south and a prevailing westerly flow developing.

As a result, temperatures for the week as a whole will tend to be close to the seasonal norm, though a little below in East Anglia and the south-east, and a little above in Northern Ireland and in western Scotland. Rainfall totals are expected to be below normal in most regions, though not exceptionally so, with the south-west coming out driest relative to normal. There is more uncertainty over sunshine amounts but close to average sunshine is most likely, though probably rather above normal in the north and west of Scotland and in south-western Britain.


Monday 27th November to Tuesday 5th December

An unsettled and fairly mild end to November is expected, though with rainfall amounts relatively low in the south, but as we head into December anticyclonic types are expected to take hold again, with temperatures falling rather below normal especially in the south. It is most likely to be cold and dry rather than cold and snowy, but one or two cold blasts from north or east cannot be ruled out, and uncertainty is high this far out. Milder, windier and less settled weather is most likely to hold on at times over the north and west of Scotland.

Temperatures during this period will be near to slightly above normal in Scotland but over much of England, Wales and Northern Ireland they are most likely to be below normal, especially so in the southern half of England and in south Wales, probably by 1 to 2C. Rainfall totals are most likely to be close to normal in north-west Scotland but elsewhere they are most likely to be below normal, especially in the south. Sunshine totals are most likely to be near normal in Scotland and Northern Ireland and north-west England, and rather above normal in central, eastern and southern parts of England.

Monthly weather forecast
The month ahead forecast, written by Ian Simpson is updated once a week - every Monday. As with any longer term forecast, it's not possible to go into much detail and accuracy can tend to drop off toward the end of the period but it can still act as a very good guide to the weather during the upcoming month.

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