Updated 7th October - Covering 14th October - 5th November 2024
Mean temperatures, relative to the 1991-2020 long-term average, are forecast to be around 2C above normal in north-east Scotland, but within 0.5C of the normal in southern England.
Rainfall totals are expected to be generally below normal overall, providing some relief for the areas that have recently been seeing flooding. There will probably be some further wet weather around mid-October, though not generally as wet as many of us have seen recently, but with a generally dry trend towards late October.
Sunshine totals will probably be above normal in eastern Scotland and north-east England, but may be below normal in Northern Ireland, western Scotland and parts of south-western Britain.
This week will be dominated by mainly southerly and south-westerly winds, with high pressure building to the east of Britain and low pressure out in the North Atlantic. The weather will be quite unsettled with systems moving in from the North Atlantic at times, but there will also be some drier, quieter interludes as well, especially in eastern and southern parts of Britain. The early to middle part of the week is expected to be strongly influenced by low pressure to the north-west, but later in the week we may see high pressure play a stronger role, with potential for highest pressure to move towards Scandinavia and pull in continental air from the south and south-east. With winds mostly blowing from the south-western quarter of the compass, temperatures will tend to be above the long-term average, but with potential for some cold nights in southern and eastern parts of England in particular when we get ridges of high pressure
Relative to the 1991-2020 long-term normal, temperatures are forecast to be 1 to 2C above average for most of the UK and perhaps nearer 3C above in north-east Scotland, but in southern England temperatures are more likely to be close to normal.
It is likely to be drier than average overall in eastern England and for coastal areas of northern and eastern Scotland, but for most other regions of the UK near average rainfall looks most probable.
Sunshine totals are forecast to be above normal in north-east Scotland, and probably above normal in most other parts of eastern Britain, but they may be below normal towards the south- west where winds will frequently be onshore.
This week will probably see high pressure more dominant than the previous week, again with highest pressure probably centred mainly to the east of Britain. The north and west of Scotland will be relatively prone to more changeable weather with frontal systems moving in from the North Atlantic at times, but particularly for eastern, central and southern England, it is expected that the weather will be predominantly dry and quiet. Sunshine amounts are quite hard to predict in this type of setup due to the increasing potential for anticyclonic gloom at this time of year, where the increasingly weak solar heating of late October can allow low cloud to persist for long periods. Some chilly nights are likely, especially for the south and south-east, which will give potential for low cloud and fog patches to form overnight. However, with westerly and south-westerly winds often affecting the north, it is probable that eastern Scotland and north-east England will be generally sunny, being in the lee of high ground.
Mean temperatures are forecast to be up to 2C above average in Scotland, with north-east Scotland again likely to see the largest anomalies, but in southern England and south Wales they will probably be very close to the long-term normal. It is likely to be drier than normal for most of the UK, especially in eastern Britain, and sunshine totals are expected to be above normal in eastern Scotland and north-east England. For other regions there is more uncertainty over sunshine amounts, and sunshine is likely to be below normal in most parts of Northern Ireland and western Scotland.
Confidence is relatively low in the prevailing weather patterns for this period, but the most likely outcome is for it to remain generally drier than average, especially for western parts of the UK, with a below-average incidence of westerly winds. Temperatures are most likely to be near normal, perhaps slightly below normal in parts of eastern and southern Britain and slightly above normal in most parts of Scotland, with potential for frost and fog patches overnight. There is an increased chance of the high pressure moving to the west of the UK at times, bringing some northerly and north-westerly winds, and as a result sunshine totals will probably be generally above normal for the majority of the UK.
Monthly weather forecast
The month ahead forecast is written by Ian Simpson and is updated every Monday.
