Updated 26th September - Covering 3rd - 25th October 2022
Mean temperatures are forecast to be around 0.5C above the 1991-2020 long-term average for most of the UK, mainly due to warm weather early in Week 2 and around the middle of Week 3 and possibly towards the very end of the period, but there will also be some colder spells.
It will be drier than normal in all parts of the UK, with any substantial wet/unsettled spells being most likely towards the end of October, rather than during this forecast period.
Sunshine totals will probably be above normal in most regions, but with some regional variation, as at this time of year it is more common for fog patches and areas of cloud to persist within anticyclones than during the summer.
It looks probable that high pressure will take hold for much of the week across the south of Britain, promising plenty of dry and settled weather, though with variable amounts of cloud.
A generally west to south-westerly airflow will dominate on its northern flank in Scotland and Northern Ireland early in the week, bringing relatively changeable weather, especially early in the week, although even here, rainfall amounts will tend to be small. This will result in generally above-average temperatures throughout the country, with maximum temperatures widely exceeding 20C in England. Later in the week, high pressure will become more dominant and the prevailing wind direction will tend to be westerly in the north (rather than south-westerly). Temperatures are expected to fall close to the seasonal norm late in the week, with some chilly nights and potential for fog patches to form. Sunshine is likely to be most reliably frequent in sheltered north-eastern parts of the country, where westerly winds will be frequent and there will be a cloud shadow effect in the lee of high ground.
Mean temperatures are forecast to be between 1 and 2C above the 1991-2020 long-term normal over much of the country, but they may be less than 1C above in north-west Scotland and also in parts of the south.
The vast majority of the UK will be substantially drier than average. Sunshine amounts will be above average in most regions but with some regional variation. Western and southern areas are most likely to end up with close to or below average sunshine, with the north-east of Britain highly likely to be sunnier than average.
This period looks set to continue drier than average with high pressure dominating the weather for much of the time, particularly in the south. Around midweek it looks probable that temperatures will trend above average with a south-westerly flow setting in, but it may turn colder towards the end of the week with low pressure transferring towards Scandinavia and north-westerly winds setting in for a time across Britain. Some bands of rain may push south-eastwards across the country during the transition. Sunshine will probably be quite abundant early and late in the week, with generally cloudier weather around midweek, especially in the west.
Temperatures are thus expected to be slightly above average overall this week, but not remarkably so, due to relatively cool weather early and late in the week. Rainfall totals will again mostly be below average. Sunshine totals may show significant regional variation, but averaged over the UK it will probably be sunnier than average for the time of year.
A transition to more unsettled weather with south-westerly winds and above-average temperatures is expected towards the end of October, but with some uncertainty over whether this transition will arise during this forecast period or not until the last week of October. During the early to middle part of this period, it is expected to remain mostly dry and settled with high pressure, with temperatures mostly near normal but potential for short-lived cold snaps with some overnight frost and fog in places. As a result, temperatures are forecast to be close to average overall during this week. It is highly likely to continue drier than average for most regions, and probably sunnier than average for most regions too. There is more uncertainty over sunshine because it depends on the positioning of the high pressure systems.
Monthly weather forecast
The month ahead forecast is written by Ian Simpson and is updated every Monday.