Updated 8th September - Covering 15th - 7th Oct 2025
Mean temperatures are likely to be 1 to 1.5C above the 1991-2020 long-term normal in most eastern parts of England and Scotland, but nearer 0.5C above in Northern Ireland and Wales and the west of both England and Scotland.
Rainfall totals are likely to come out above normal for most regions, despite some relatively dry settled weather around 20-25 September, but generally not exceptionally so. Parts of eastern Scotland and north-east England, as well as East Anglia and the south-east, are most likely to end up with near or slightly below average rainfall.
Eastern counties of Britain are likely to be generally sunnier than average during this forecast period, but again not exceptionally so. Sunshine is likely to be near or slightly below average in most western areas.
This week looks set to remain changeable with westerly and south-westerly winds, particularly in the north-west of Britain, but with an increasing tendency for ridges of high pressure to move eastwards across southern Britain, bringing a couple of days of dry sunny weather behind the rain belts that move across the country, especially to most parts of England. These high pressure ridges may extend further north towards the end of the week, bringing the periods of dry sunny weather northwards into much of Scotland, Wales and Northern Ireland as well. However, the more changeable and wet conditions are likely to persist in the north and west of Scotland for most of the week. Some strong winds are possible, especially early in the week and especially in the north and west of Britain.
Mean temperatures are forecast to be very close to the 1991-2020 long-term normal in western Britain, but about 1C above normal in the east of Scotland and England. Although the synoptic patterns will be the sort that tend to favour below-average temperatures at this time of year, this will be offset by the unusually high sea surface temperatures around the British Isles following the record warm spring and summer.
Rainfall totals are forecast to be above normal in western Scotland, and possibly parts of north-west England and the west of Northern Ireland, but they may fall below normal in East Anglia and in the south of England, and near some North Sea coasts.
Sunshine totals are expected to be near to slightly below normal in most western parts of the UK, but generally above normal in the east of both Scotland and England.
The early part of this week will probably be dominated mainly by high pressure, bringing generally dry sunny weather to most of the country although it may be cloudier in the north-west of Britain, where there will be south-westerlies on the northern flank of the high pressure. It is likely to turn unsettled again late in the week, and there is potential for some unseasonably warm weather around midweek as the high pressure moves eastwards bringing in southerly winds.
As a result, mean temperatures are likely to be above normal during this week, probably by around 2C, possibly more than that in the east of England. There is not a strong signal for rainfall, because a dry start to the week is likely to be offset to some degree by wetter weather late in the week, although for East Anglia and the south-east it will probably be generally drier than normal. Sunshine totals are expected to be generally above normal, due to the likelihood of a sunny start to the week.
A general trend towards changeable westerlies looks probable as we head into October, with generally above average rainfall and probably also with temperatures falling closer to the long-term normal. However, slightly above average temperatures are still the most likely outcome, especially in eastern and southern Britain. With low pressure systems likely to take a relatively southerly track, it may well be that above-average rainfall especially affects the south and east of Britain, with the north-west of Scotland more likely to have near or below average rainfall. Sunshine anomalies are hard to predict at this range but in this kind of setup it is common for sunshine to come out above normal in eastern Scotland but below normal around the Irish Sea, especially in Wales and western England.
Monthly weather forecast
The month ahead forecast is written by Ian Simpson and is updated every Monday.
