Updated 26th October - Covering 2nd November - 24th November 2026
Temperatures are generally forecast to be around 2C above the 1991-2020 long-term average in Scotland and northern England, but nearer 1C above in southern Britain, where the high pressure early in November has potential to bring some fairly cold weather at times.
Rainfall totals are forecast to start on the low side but pick up, especially after mid-November. Overall, the period as a whole is expected to be wetter than average in south Wales and south-west England, but probably drier than average in northern and eastern Scotland and north-east England.
Sunshine totals are expected to be above normal in parts of northern and eastern Scotland, but most regions will probably come out with below-average sunshine.
It looks probable that high pressure will extend further westwards than previously anticipated, mostly situated to the north-east of Britain, bringing mainly southerly winds to western and northern regions, but some continental air coming in from the east into eastern and southern England. There will probably be a fair amount of anticyclonic gloom, with areas of cloud trapped underneath a temperature inversion. Some brighter periods are also likely but it is difficult to predict where and when these will arise. The north and east of Scotland are the most likely regions to see substantial sunny periods, as they will sometimes be in the lee of high ground when winds become southerly or south-westerly. Towards the end of the week, we may see the high drift away to the east, allowing some rain-bearing frontal systems to start pushing in from the west, especially into south-western Britain.
Relative to the 1991-2020 long-term normal, temperatures are expected to be 1 to 2C above normal in most parts of Scotland, Northern Ireland and northern England, but they are likely to come out very close to normal in southern Britain, perhaps up to 1C below in some areas, due to the continental air coming into southern areas from the east, and potential for cold foggy conditions to develop at times when skies clear.
Rainfall will be well below normal, perhaps not far below normal in parts of the south-west due to a potentially wetter end to the week, but for most of the country the high pressure will ensure a dry week, probably staying completely dry in some regions.
Sunshine is likely to end up below normal in most regions, but it will probably be above normal in parts of northern and eastern Scotland.
High pressure looks set to gradually fade during this week, with some frontal systems pushing in from the west at times. But there is no clear signal for the weather to turn predominantly wet and windy during this week: it looks most likely to see some ridges of high pressure moving through in between the rain belts, and mostly shallow depressions. Some of these lows may take a relatively southerly track, boosted by remnants of tropical cyclones moving into the North Atlantic, thus bringing rain especially to south-western Britain.
Temperatures are likely to be 1 to 2C above the long-term normal for most of the country. It will probably again be drier than average for most of the country, but not exceptionally so, with some areas, particularly the south-west, potentially ending up with near to slightly above average rainfall. Sunshine totals are uncertain, but are most likely to be near or above normal, with the more mobile weather pattern allowing more sunshine to develop during ridges of high pressure in between the rain belts.
This period is looking likely to turn generally wet and windy, with mainly south-westerly winds, though there is some uncertainty over how quickly this pattern will evolve - recent model output guidance has tended to prolong the high pressure at the start of November and to delay the onset of the wet and windy pattern with the east Atlantic trough sending lows and fronts our way. At present it looks unlikely that any substantial cold or snowy weather will develop. Most areas are expected to be cloudier, wetter and warmer than average, but with a chance of parts of northern and eastern Scotland and north-east England being quite sunny, sheltered from the south-westerly winds.
Monthly weather forecast
The month ahead forecast is written by Ian Simpson and is updated every Monday.
