Updated 13th April - Covering 20th April - 12th May 2026
Relative to the 1991-2020 long-term normal, temperatures are forecast to be 1 to 1.5C above normal in most regions, with temperatures well above average in Week 2 and then falling closer to, but still generally rather above, the long-term normal.
Rainfall totals are likely to end up near normal for most of the UK, but probably below average overall in most parts of Scotland, particularly the north-west, due to low pressure systems often tracking over southern Britain during Weeks 2 and 3. They may end up above average overall in the south-west due to wet weather in Week 2.
Sunshine will probably not be far from normal in most regions, but will probably end up above normal in western Scotland and below normal in parts of the south.
This week will start with a continuation of the south to south-westerly type over the British Isles, but by midweek we will move into a south-easterly type, with the Scandinavian blocking high pushing further west to the north of Britain, and lowest pressure to the south-west. Temperatures will remain on the warm side for most of the week, as the south-easterlies will still be pulling warm air masses in from the south, although there is a chance of temperatures falling close to the long-term normal towards the end of the week with winds becoming more easterly.
Bands of rain, interspersed with brighter showery weather and possible thunder, will especially affect south-western Britain, while north-eastern Britain will generally be driest. The onshore wind is likely to bring low cloud into the east of Scotland, especially near North Sea coasts, and possibly also the coastal strip of north-east England, but East Anglia and the south-east will probably not see this low cloud due to the shorter air track over the North Sea.
Mean temperatures will be around 2C above the 1991-2020 long-term average over most of the UK, but it is probable that eastern Scotland and the north-east coast of England will be cooler relative to normal due to the onshore winds, though still probably about 1C above normal overall.
Rainfall totals are forecast to be above normal in south-western Britain and below normal in the north and east of Scotland, but probably close to normal averaged nationally.
Sunshine is expected to be below normal in eastern Scotland and above normal in north-west Scotland, but for most regions it will probably be near normal.
This week is forecast to start off with easterly winds. There is potential for some colder northerlies to develop for a time with highest pressure transferring to the north-west of Britain, but it is uncertain whether any particularly cold Arctic air masses will make it to the British Isles - there is also a chance of them being shunted away to the east and only giving Britain a sort of glancing blow. Some low pressure systems are expected to cross the south of Britain, particularly early in the week, but it looks probable that high pressure will be more dominant generally, resulting in a lot of dry weather, especially in the north and especially during the mid to latter part of the week.
Overall, temperatures are expected to be closer to the long-term normal during this week, maybe up to 1C above in some regions, most likely the west and south. It is expected to be drier than normal in most regions, although there is a chance of parts of southern England seeing near or above average rainfall due to one or two frontal systems near the beginning of the week. Sunshine is expected to be above normal in most parts of Scotland and northern England and Northern Ireland, especially in the west, but near or slightly below normal in the south of England.
Confidence is lower regarding the weather during this period, but it looks most probable at this stage that the high pressure to the north will move further away to the north-west, possibly allowing in cold northerly or north-westerly winds initially, and then a transition to generally unsettled weather with low pressure often close by. As a result, this period looks most likely to be wetter than normal, with temperatures close to or slightly above normal overall. Sunshine amounts are more uncertain, as in these situations they are dependent on whether the unsettled regime is mostly cloudy and wet or bright and showery, but they will probably be below normal in western Britain.
Monthly weather forecast
The month ahead forecast is written by Ian Simpson and is updated every Monday.
