Updated 14th July - Covering 21st July - 12th August 2025
Mean temperatures, relative to the 1991-2020 long-term normal, will probably be close to normal in Northern Ireland and some Irish Sea coastal areas, but probably 1 to 1.5C above normal in most parts of eastern England, especially East Anglia, south-east England and along North Sea coasts further north as well.
Rainfall totals will probably end up above normal for most, but in north-east Scotland and in parts of southern and eastern England, particularly the south-east, it is more likely to be near normal.
Sunshine totals will probably come out below normal in most western parts of the UK and near average in the east, with parts of the north-east and south-east perhaps seeing above average sunshine overall.
This week looks set to start off unsettled and dominated by low pressure, with bands of rain crossing the country interspersed with brighter, showery weather, where in the showery spells some of the showers may be heavy and thundery, particularly in eastern England. Around midweek we may see a more settled interlude, especially for Wales and the west and south of England, with high pressure ridging into these areas from the Azores promising some dry sunny weather, although it may stay relatively cloudy and cool with scattered showers for northern and eastern parts of Britain. Low pressure is expected to return to being dominant towards the end of the week, giving further bands of rain interspersed by brighter showery weather to most of the country, although there is potential for it to be predominantly dry and warm with variable amounts of cloud in East Anglia and the south-east.
Relative to the 1991-2020 long-term average, temperatures are forecast to be very close to normal for most of the country, but probably about 1C above the normal in East Anglia and south-east England.
Rainfall totals are expected to be above normal overall in most regions, but they may end up near to slightly below normal in parts of the south, particularly central southern England and south-east England, and also north-east Scotland may end up relatively dry.
Sunshine amounts will be sensitive to the extent to which we see frontal rain as opposed to bright and showery weather, but it looks unlikely that sunshine will widely be substantially above normal - near or below average sunshine looks probable due to the lows often coming in off the North Atlantic.
This period looks set to continue changeable, but warm at times, particularly in the east of England. It looks set to often be hotter than average over much of France and Spain and into central Europe, which means that if we pick up a southerly at some stage, a day or two of intense heat is possible, especially for eastern England, though confidence in whether we get such a southerly or not during this week is low. Generally the most likely outcome is for near or above average rainfall, with western areas most likely to see above average rainfall, near average rainfall more likely for some eastern counties, especially south-east England and north-east Scotland. Sunshine is likely to end up close to or below normal, with eastern areas most likely to see average sunshine amounts and western areas most likely to be below average. Temperatures are likely to be above normal for most, especially in eastern England, where they may be 1 to 2C above normal, but probably near normal in Northern Ireland and around the Irish Sea coasts.
There are signs that the weather may start to turn more settled again as we head through the first half of August, with high pressure starting to move in from the south-west, although it will probably remain unsettled with low pressure systems frequently crossing from west to east early in this forecast period. Temperatures are likely to be near normal early in the period but probably trending warmer than average again towards the end of the period as high pressure becomes more prominent close to or over the British Isles. Both rainfall and sunshine amounts will probably not be far from normal, with relatively wet and cloudy conditions early in the period but a dry sunny trend later in the period. Overall, again it will probably be warmer than average in eastern England, on the periphery of some hot weather in continental Europe.
Monthly weather forecast
The month ahead forecast is written by Ian Simpson and is updated every Monday.
