Updated 8th August 15th August - 6th September 2022
The mean temperature during this period is forecast to range from around 0.5C warmer than the 1991-2020 average in central and northern Scotland to 1.5-2.0C above average in inland parts of southern England.
Rainfall is forecast to be below normal for most of the UK, with north-west Scotland coming out near or rather above normal earlier in the period, but then tending to be drier than normal towards the end of August and beginning of September. There is uncertainty over the extent of any thundery downpours in the south in early September, but a significant chance of many southern and eastern areas continuing to see well below average rainfall.
Sunshine is expected to be close to or slightly below normal in Northern Ireland and western Scotland, but mostly above normal elsewhere, especially in eastern and south-eastern England.
This week will start off with a breakdown following the hot dry sunny weather of the previous week, and low pressure moving out into the North Sea. There will be scattered outbreaks of rain, possibly with thunder in places, especially in the south, but as has often been the case this summer, the rain will probably not amount to much in many areas of the country.
Following the breakdown early in the week, the signs are that we will move into a predominantly westerly type but with high pressure frequently ridging into southern parts of the British Isles (again, a pattern that we've often seen earlier this summer). This means that there will be further dry sunny weather towards the south-east of Britain, though with nearer average temperatures and more variable amounts of sunshine than during the previous week. There is potential for it to turn hot again in the south and east towards the end of the week. It will be cloudier over much of Scotland, Northern Ireland and north-west England in particular, with some rain at times, this especially affecting north-west Scotland.
Temperatures are forecast to continue above the 1991-2020 long-term normal over most of the UK, but with an enhanced north-south gradient, such that the mean temperature will probably come out over 2C above normal in the south-east, but very close to normal in western and northern Scotland.
Rainfall totals are forecast to be below normal again, except in parts of Scotland, Northern Ireland and northern England, and so the problems with drought will continue in the south-east.
Sunshine totals are likely to be slightly above normal over much of southern, central and eastern England, but below normal in western and northern Scotland, Northern Ireland and north-west England.
It looks likely to continue drier than average for most of the UK, particularly the south, and again maintaining the enhanced north-south gradient in temperatures, with the south remaining on the periphery of continued very warm or hot weather over continental Europe. Although there is some uncertainly over the timings of the changes, it looks most likely to be hot, especially for south-eastern Britain, early and late in the week, with cooler weather spreading from the north-west around midweek. High pressure may extend further north across the country early and/or late in this week, resulting in warmer and sunnier weather extending further north.
As a result, temperature and rainfall anomalies are expected to be similar to those during Week 2 in the south, with sunshine coming out more substantially above normal. In the north it will tend to be warmer and sunnier, and also drier in north-western Britain, than during Week 2, with most of Scotland coming out about 1C warmer than average and having slightly above average sunshine.
There are signs that, with the change of season, this rut that our weather has been in recently will start to break down, with an increased frequency of northerly and north-westerly winds and close to average temperatures extending into the south as we head into early September. There is potential for thundery outbreaks to affect the south in particular during the transition. Early in this period, there is still potential for hot spells, again especially affecting the south and south-east.
Thus, temperatures are still likely to be above normal for this period as a whole, especially for the south, but not by as much as in Weeks 2 and 3, with an anomaly of between 1 and 2C in the south-east, and near-average temperatures overall over much of Scotland. There is more uncertainty over rainfall totals for this period. Southern areas have potential to be wetter than average, alleviating the water shortages, but much depends on the extent of any thundery downpours. It will probably be wetter than average overall in north-east Scotland, but drier than average in some western areas. Sunshine will probably not be far from normal.
Monthly weather forecast
The month ahead forecast is written by Ian Simpson and is updated every Monday.