Updated 20th October - Covering 27th Oct - 18th Nov 2025
Mean temperatures are forecast to be close the 1991-2020 long-term normal for most regions, tending to be between 0 and 1C above the normal for most of the country.
Rainfall totals will be variable through the period, with a dry start and end, but a lot of wet weather in Week 3, with the exception of north-west Scotland, where Week 2 will probably see the wettest weather. Overall, Week 3 is likely to be sufficiently wet to result in most regions having above average rainfall, though generally not exceptionally so, and it may end up with near or below average rainfall in parts of Scotland, particularly the north.
Sunshine totals are likely to come out above normal in the southern half of England and in south Wales, but they may well be a little below normal in most other regions.
This week will start off cold, following a northerly blast during the preceding weekend, and there may be a widespread ground frost in the north and east overnight into the 27th, though with milder air pushing in from the west. Much of the week will have a northwest-southeast split in the weather, with high pressure moving eastwards to the south of Britain, increasingly ridging into the south-east, with low pressure to the north and north-west. Until the 30th or 31st October, there will be some bands of rain moving from west to east across the country at times, but substantial rain will tend to be restricted mainly to western Scotland, particularly the north-west of Scotland.
There will generally be a lot of cloud, with near average temperatures for the time of year by day, and above average temperatures by night, but some sunnier weather may develop especially in southern and eastern England towards midweek. This will result in higher daytime temperatures but also colder nights. Towards the end of the week, the high pressure will move away eastwards into central Europe, and this will allow the weather to turn wetter, windier and more unsettled from the north-west, probably with wet and windy spells extending through the whole country by the end of the week.
Although it will start off cold, temperatures overall are forecast to be above the 1991-2020 long-term normal, probably up to 2C above in northern and eastern Scotland. They may come out near normal in southern England due to some colder nights at times.
Overall, the week is likely to come out drier than normal except in north-west Scotland, where it may end up wetter than normal. However, there is uncertainty over how wet it will become at the end of the week, as the wet end of the week could raise rainfall totals close to or above normal, most likely in western Britain.
Sunshine totals are likely to be above normal in southern and eastern England and near the North Sea coasts of eastern Scotland and north-east England, but probably below normal in most other regions.
This week will probably be very unsettled and windy at times, with low pressure systems taking a more southerly track as they approach western Europe. It will probably be mild early in the week with mainly southerly and south-westerly winds, but temperatures are likely to be close to or slightly below average late in the week as we move into more of a generally cyclonic pattern with mainly westerly winds in the south and some easterly winds on the northern flank of depressions in Scotland. Rain belts are expected to cross the country frequently, interspersed with brighter, showery weather, with potential for some heavy thundery showers for the south and especially south-west of both England and Wales.
Mean temperatures are forecast to be close to or slightly above the 1991-2020 long-term normal overall, most likely around 1C above in south-east England, but potentially falling a bit below normal in Northern Ireland and northern and western Scotland. It will be wetter than average in most regions, especially in the south, but potentially drier than normal in north-west Scotland. Sunshine totals will probably be below normal for most, but near or rather above normal in north-west Scotland and parts of the south and west of Britain.
This period will start off wet and unsettled, but it is probable that high pressure will start to return towards mid-November, promising generally drier and quieter weather. There is currently a lot of uncertainty over where the high pressure will end up - there are some signals for a mid-Atlantic high which could introduce potential for northerly blasts, but the high could also end up over or to the east of Britain. As a result, temperatures are likely to be not far from the long-term normal, with a trend towards below-average rainfall as the week progresses. Sunshine amounts are very uncertain, because high pressure can mean plentiful sunshine but also anticyclonic gloom at this time of year.
Monthly weather forecast
The month ahead forecast is written by Ian Simpson and is updated every Monday.
