With Easter arriving late, hopes for warmth are tempered by northerly winds. Low pressure won't be too far away, meaning a mixed weekend, but there will be some drier, sunnier interludes.
Easter is as late as it can be this year, suggesting a better chance of warmer weather. However, it comes close to a singularity that frequently brings winds from the North to East after around April 20th. Looking at the synoptic situation for the next few days, this seems to be the case, with winds currently from a South Easterly quarter 'backing' (shifting counter-clockwise) into the North East through the holiday and then to the North next week.
This direction is hardly warm, and with low pressure dominating, it's going to be an unsettled Easter, particularly in the South and South West. However, it won't be a complete washout during this very mixed period.
Eastern parts, along with the North and East of Scotland, will see the driest weather with some sunshine this Good Friday afternoon. Further west, over Northern Ireland, South West Scotland, the North West, Wales, and the South West (where a yellow warning for heavy rain is currently in place), it will be unsettled with showery outbreaks. Top temperatures will be 14 to 16, possibly 17C in the brighter spots, but only 10 to 13C over North Scotland, where a northerly breeze will feel chilly.
Parts of the Midlands and central southern England may see a few showers into the evening and after dark. Further North and East, it should stay dry but with variable amounts of cloud, making it grey and misty in places by morning. Meanwhile, Northern Ireland, Wales, and the West and South West will continue to see further showers.
While some glens of North Scotland may see a touch of frost again by morning, it's not expected to be a cold night, with lowest temperatures mostly in the range of 5 to 7C.
The mixed picture continues into Easter Saturday. The wettest place initially will probably be across Northern Ireland, though this should eventually move away. South West Scotland and the North West will likely also see an improvement. However, across South Wales and the South West, you can expect further showers. A few showers might also break out across southern England and the South Midlands through the day, which could be locally heavy and thundery.
Elsewhere, it's a mainly dry scenario. After a grey, misty start for some, it will brighten up with the sun coming through in places later. As winds turn into the East or North East, it will feel a little chillier, especially along some North Sea coasts. Here, together with the North of Scotland, temperatures will only reach about 10 to 12C. Elsewhere, 14 or 15C is more likely, maybe 16C where you see the best of the sunshine.
During the evening and overnight, showers could return to Northern Ireland. Showers may also occur from the Midlands southward, potentially quite sharp locally with a risk of thunder in the South, although not everywhere will catch one during this mixed night. Further North, it will continue mainly dry with a few clear intervals developing, but eastern areas may see more cloud and mist, particularly the further South you are. Despite a chilly wind, all but a few glens of Scotland will escape frost, with lowest temperatures mostly between 4 and 7C.
Easter Sunday should see the best of the weather in the North and North West, with the South remaining prone to showers. By Easter Monday, these could be more widespread, especially over England and Wales, where they could be heavy, bringing thunder.
In a nutshell, the Easter break occurs on different dates each year because, like many religious festivals, it is lunar-based and historically commemorates the resurrection of Jesus. It is also linked to the Jewish feast of Passover, which corresponds to the first full moon after the vernal (spring) equinox. This is called a Paschal moon, and Easter Sunday always occurs immediately after a Paschal moon.
The spring equinox occurs anytime between the 19th and 21st of March. This variation happens because our Gregorian calendar is not perfectly aligned with the Earth's orbital period of 365 and a quarter days. As the Gregorian calendar only has 365 days, we have to make up the discrepancy by having a leap year (366 days) every four years, causing the equinoxes to wander slightly.
The time from one full moon to the next is called a synodic month and takes 29.53 days. Therefore, the Easter holiday can occur up to 29 days after the vernal or spring equinox. This year, the first full moon after the equinox didn't occur until April 13th, with the Sunday immediately following being April 20th – hence, the late arrival of the festival this year. Next year, the full moon after the spring equinox will be on April 2nd, with the following Sunday, April 5th, being Easter Sunday.
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