It's that time of the year again - we're starting to hunt down the Christmas forecast to answer the biggest question of the year - Will it be a white Christmas?
We'll be updating this forecast twice weekly for now, but as we get nearer to the big day, the frequency will increase, with daily updates as the day draws closer. You may have noticed a few changes on the page this year - including the fact you can install it to your device for easy access (just follow the prompts on the screen). There are also one or two Christmassy Easter Eggs hidden about the place (with more to come as Christmas nears), let us know if you find one!
🎅 Santa Shaker! ⛄
Choose your location from the menu to give Santa a shake and find out your chance of a White Christmas! 🎁
Firstly, and as usual, a forecast health warning - at this point we're just searching for trends as it's too early for any specifics about the weather on Christmas Day. We'll spend the next couple of weeks or so homing in on those trends, then once the overall picture firms up, we can start to dig into the details.
The image above is from the ECMWF, and is a weather regimes graph. It shows the current forecast likelihood of various weather set ups for Europe and the North Atlantic, between now and the start of January. The blue colour is your typical Atlantic driven weather, with rain, wind and milder temperatures frequent visitors. The other colours are suggestive of something a bit more 'blocked' which increases the chance of some colder weather, and of course some snow.
As you'd expect at this range, the outlook for the Xmas period has no clear winner right now, with milder Atlantic driven weather the slight favourite. There is some suggestion within that graph and looking at the other background drivers that high pressure could take up some sort of residence to the north, east or northeast of the UK in the run-up to and during the Xmas period, though. So, what we'll be watching for in the next updates is whether that bit of interest can gather some momentum, before we ultimately start to dig further into where that 'block' could land - it would have to be far enough north and not too far east to bring an increased chance of sustained colder air to our shores - but looking at that is a long way off yet.
So, we're underway! Give Santa a shake to find out the current chances of seeing at least a flake of snow in your region (he speaks this year by the way), and tune in at the weekend for the next update.
🎄 Next Update: Sunday 30th November 🎅
