The 15th of July is St Swithin’s Day and supposedly the weather on this day will herald an ongoing theme for weather in the UK until late August with forty days of rain or shine.
It may feel like we’ve had forty days of rain for some parts of the UK. There was the rather disappointing May, away from N.Ireland and NW Scotland but these areas, and NW England, saw a wetter June (in terms of days, not rainfall amount).
There is rain in the forecast for 15th July 2024, even a heavy rain warning from the Met Office for Wales, the West Country, the West Midlands into Cheshire and Merseyside.
“Outbreaks of rain, some heavy and thundery, will spread steadily north across the area during Monday. Some torrential downpours are likely in places with 15 to 20 mm falling in less than an hour and as much as 30 to 40 mm in 3 hours. This is likely to lead to localised flooding…Some of the heavy rain may be accompanied by lightning bringing a further hazard.” MO
The Netweather Convective forecast for Monday - "the development of elevated thunderstorms pushing NE across S England, SE Midlands and East Anglia early evening...organisation of thunderstorms into clusters capable of producing intense rainfall leading to localised flooding, hail, locally strong wind gusts and frequent cloud-to-ground lightning. Storms may also spread further north across parts of the Midlands and further north across eastern England this evening and overnight, but will tend to become more isolated with northward extent."
The St Swithin's Day legend is an old one –the earliest surviving written reference dates back to the 14th century – although its roots are much disputed. St Swithin (or Swithun) was an Anglo-Saxon bishop of Winchester who died in around AD862. RMetSoc
St Swithin was so humble that in his dying days, he asked to be buried in a simple grave outside the Cathedral, under the feet of the passers-by and exposed to the rain from the heavens. His wishes were complete for 100 years but on 15th July 971 his body was moved into the new Winchester cathedral where there was a splendid new shrine for him
“According to legend, forty days of terrible weather followed, suggesting St Swithun was none too happy with the new arrangements! Ever since, it has been said that the weather on 15 July supposedly determines the weather for the next forty days, as noted in the popular Elizabethan verse:
St Swithin’s day if thou dost rain For forty days it will remain
St Swithin’s day if thou be fair For forty days ‘twill rain nae mare"
The forecast for this year shows wet weather over much of southern Britain with a few showery outbreaks further north but also drier brighter weather for Northern Ireland and much of mainland Scotland. A troublesome low pressure will push bands of heavy, even thundery rain northwards today. This may remind you of St Swithin as it arrives. The rain will move up through Wales this morning and extend along the English Channel. Through the afternoon and evening, heavy rain is forecast for central southern England, through the Midlands and northwest England, some heavy rain is showing outside the MO warned areas. There could be tricky conditions on the roads in any torrential thundery downpours with surface water and spray, poor visibility and the risk of aquaplaning. Southeastern Britain could see lively downpours this evening including Greater London as the main band and showery outbreaks transfer northwards tonight, these are highlighted in the convective forecast.
The end of June was hot but we haven’t seen much settled sunshine and heat so far this year. The absence of a lengthy fine, dry and very warm spell gives the impression that summer has not arrived. However, it has been worse for a corridor of northern mainland Europe. Over northern France through Belgium and the Netherlands, there has been a succession of low pressures bringing heavy and persistent rain, severe thunderstorms with gusty winds, hail and even tornadoes. This conveyor has blighted these areas as the jetstream continues to direct the worst of the unsettled weather across this region. The UK is to the north of the jet and stuck in a cooler unsettled area but the July sunshine is going to try hard this week to warm things up, once this St Swithin rain has cleared.
Weather patterns getting stuck cement our impressions of a bad summer or a poor spring, or can produce a truly heatwave summer. Just two years ago this week there was a red warning for Extreme Heat for parts of England. By the 19th of July 2022, the highest-ever UK temperature of 40.3C was recorded in Lincolnshire. The vicious heat grew incredibly quickly.
There is a shift for the jetstream this week, moving further north. This would take the wet weather into Northern Ireland and western Scotland which are the drier areas for today, the 15th.
Is there any hope for this year? There are hints that the end of July, into early August could be more settled, so drier but it’s not a strong signal yet. It’s looking mixed this week so if the July sunshine does appear it will feel very warm, with high UV. Tomorrow improves and Wednesday 17th looks fine and warm across the UK. Thursday looks fair and very warm for the southeastern half of Britain. There is some hope but nothing too reliable. Maybe the St Swithin forecast should only apply to Winchester. After today's rain, it will become dry and sunny and warmer, up to 24C but feeling more like 28C by Thursday. Then rain at the weekend. No clear theme there from St Swithin.
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