Issued 2025-08-14 07:01:49
Valid: 14/08/2025 0700 to 15/08/2025 0600
Upper trough over the N Atlantic to the west and southwest of Ireland will disrupt over the next 24hrs to form a cut-off low between Ireland and the Azores, with a ridge of high pressure building over the top to the NW of UK. Before this occurs, a shortwave trough moving NE from Ireland towards Scotland Thurs AM into higher theta-w plume will support some isolated elevated thunderstorms across central and eastern Scotland for a time, before the trough weakens and activity wanes. However, warm moist high theta-w airmass, characterised by steep lapse rates across eastern Scotland, will become unstable to surface heating, with models forecasting 1000-1500 j/kg CAPE. Breeze convergence and orographic lift over higher ground will support the development of thunderstorms across E Scotland this afternoon and into the evening, with a risk of flash-flooding in places.
Breeze convergence combined with surface heating of moist airmass across eastern Rep of Ireland and N. Ireland is also forecast to trigger some heavy showers and isolated thunderstorms through the day, again, as risk of localised flooding possible.
Issued by: Nick Finnis
Issued by the Netweather forecast team whenever there is a risk of storms or severe convective weather, these discussion based and in depth forecasts will highlight the areas at risk and give an in depth description of the risk and the factors surrounding it.
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