Issued 2020-07-01 22:30:26
Valid: 02/07/2020 0600 - 03/07/2020 0600
Broad upper troughing with cyclonic westerly flow covers the far N Atlantic and northern Europe on Thursday. A shortwave trough crossing mainland UK in the morning will clear out into the North Sea in the afternoon. A shallow surface trough of low pressure will lie from mid-Wales to E Anglia at 12z, with an occluded front lying W-E just to the north.
Scattered showers, locally heavy, are forecast to develop across S Wales, Midlands, S England and E Anglia by and into the afternoon, as sunny spells to south of band of cloud and patchy rain along occluded front creates modest instability. Strongest instability towards SE Mids, SE England and E Anglia by the afternoon (200-500 j/kg) may locally support thunderstorms to develop (30%), particularly where surface wind shift moving slowly south across England creates convergence and lift. Any thunderstorms will be slow-moving – so enhancing the risk of localised flooding. Hail and gusty winds may also accompany storms. A few funnel clouds are possible with stronger convection along convergence zones.
Issued by: Nick Finnis
Issued by the Netweather forecast team whenever there is a risk of storms or severe convective weather, these discussion based and in depth forecasts will highlight the areas at risk and give an in depth description of the risk and the factors surrounding it.