Issued 2024-12-18 16:34:20
Valid: 18/12/2024 1600 to 19/12/2024 0300
Surface low will track NE across S Wales, Midlands and E England this evening. Models are indicating sufficient instability with MLCAPE (400-600 j/kg) in the warm sector south of the low to support locally strong convection where forcing for ascent occurs, this likely to occur just ahead/along cold front surging east to the south of the low across S England & English Channel. Any convection that forms here will be in an environment of strong vertical shear, this will allow convection to form into linear clusters capable of producing isolated strong convective wind gusts of 50-60mph. Hail and isolated lightning may also accompany strongest convection. With 30-40 knots of low level (0-1km) shear forecast across S England/ E Channel (inc Channel Islands) - there is also a small risk for a tornado or two with stronger updrafts that can rotate - particularly in coastal areas.
Issued by: Nick Finnis
Issued by the Netweather forecast team whenever there is a risk of storms or severe convective weather, these discussion based and in depth forecasts will highlight the areas at risk and give an in depth description of the risk and the factors surrounding it.
