Broadscale upper troughing will cover the far N Atlantic and NW Europe (including UK & Ireland) on Monday, with cyclonic SW or Wly flow covering the UK and Ireland, becoming unstable with surface heating across England and far E of Scotland in the afternoon - supporting heavy showers and isolated thunderstorms to develop.
... E WALES, ENGLAND and FAR EAST of SCOTLAND ...
Cold mid-level temperatures and surface heating of moist maritime Wly flow will yield a few 100 j/kg CAPE in the afternoon - allowing convective cloud growth supporting heavy showers and isolated thunderstorms with hail and gusty winds. Thunder most likely across S/SE England, E Midlands and E Anglia - where models show greatest instability in the afternoon. A few troughs passing E in the flow may organise showers/storms to form bands - which may bring some localised flooding.
Issued by the Netweather forecast team whenever there is a risk of storms or severe convective weather, these discussion based and in depth forecasts will highlight the areas at risk and give an in depth description of the risk and the factors surrounding it.