Remembrance 2022 has been record-breaking, for overnight month high minimums and day maximums. Europe had its warmest October on record and another mild weekend follows.
It has been warm. October was warm. Copernicus has shown that Europe had its warmest October on record and then, after a slight cooling here in the UK, we are back in very mild air this week. It was “exceptionally mild” overnight from Thurs 10th/Friday 11th and remains mild by day for the UK. It has also been unseasonably warm for parts of Scandinavia. Overnight minimum temperature records have been broken in both Northern Ireland and Scotland for November and it has been the warmest Armistice Day (11th November) on record.
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The airflow is very mild and the temperatures to the lee of high ground are being bumped up thanks to the Foehn Effect. This is where mild, moist air dries out and then warms after being forced up and over mountains. Moray was already seeing 18 to start Friday 11th.
There have been great meanders in the Jetstream and in this amplified state, very mild air is being drawn up from the southwest. This is aided today by a large high pressure over central Europe which is steadying the weather there and keeping the warm flow from NW Africa and the Canaries aimed at the UK. Low pressures are skimming past the northwest of the UK with persistent rain for western Scotland. Over 100mm on Thursday and over 200mm for Skye in 36 hours and some very windy weather.
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Previously the highest overnight November minimums for Northern Ireland and Scotland were 13.9C and 14.5C respectively. The Scottish one (from 2007 at Dyce) was just pipped with 14.6C at Prestwick and Kinloss but the Northern Irish one (from Armagh in 1947) was truly beaten with 14.5C
Met Eireann “Provisional new highest minimum temperature record for November in Ireland last night. Between 21:00UTC and 09:00UTC, the temperature at Shannon Airport, Co Clare didn't fall below 15.5°C. The previous record was 14.6°C. Five other synoptic stations also broke the previous record.”
The November highest minimum record for England is 15.9°C (Eastbourne in 2005) and a long-standing 15.0°C for Wales.
"Today the UK has seen the warmest Armistice Day on record, provisionally breaking the previous record of 17.8 Celsius set in 1954 and 1977 England, Scotland and Northern Ireland also set provisional new individual records" Met Office
By day, it has been the locations to the lee of high ground seeing temperatures into the high teens and managing to beat some of the daily records. The daytime November monthly temperature records are 22.4C in 2015 Ceredigion, Wales. 21.1C from 1938 in a few spots for England and 20.6C in Edinburgh in 1946 and 18.5C in 2015 for Co. Down. So not at those levels but easily beating Armistice Day records which were 17.8C for England and Wales, 17.0C for Scotland and 15.8C for Northern Ireland.
The winds will ease down overnight but still breezy through the Irish Sea and for Southwest England. The frontal band which continues to bring rain to NW Scotland will edge southwards and so temperatures will fall away for northern and central Scotland. It will be mild elsewhere. Saturday will be mild and with lighter winds London could reach 18, maybe 19C
Also mild on Sunday and then a change as a cold front moves in from the west during Monday. The end of the month shows signs of cooling off and perhaps becoming colder than average but for now, we have a very mild weekend coming up.
UPDATE - A new UK record for Remembrance Sunday (which is a moveable date) with 21.2 °C at Porthmadog, Gwynedd. It was also "the highest temperature ever recorded this late in the year." Met Office
As the jet becomes more zonal it will fire low pressures right at the UK. More of a temperature contrast is developing across North America and we have the combination of a Winter Storm from Thursday and the remnants of what was Hurricane Nicole. Nicole has brought huge waves to the coast of Florida with structural damage to beachfront properties. Heavy rain caused flooding as the weakening cyclone moved from Florida across western parts of the Carolinas and will continue to head northwards.
Various low pressures will swing across the north Atlantic resulting in more wind and rain for the UK from the west. Eastern areas could see some shelter but one active low will swing over the UK on Tuesday with another following Wednesday night into Thursday.
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