A fine weekend coming up but without the heat and humidity. Warm sunshine but with fresher evenings. Uncertainty for the Bank Holiday forecast thanks to Hurricane Ernesto heading to Bermuda.
There will be a lot of fine, dry weather this weekend with warm sunshine. However, fresher air will continue to take hold from the Atlantic so the last of this week’s warm air will fade away from southeast Britain. Temperatures in the sunshine will still reach the mid-20s Celsius with very light winds in London and southeast England but it will feel cooler overnight.
Next week will be changeable with spells of rain, some warmth early on but it will feel fresher by midweek. Looking ahead to the Bank Holiday weekend it looks like the UK could be stuck in the westerly flow off the Atlantic with showers from the west but bright spells too. The Azores High will be lurking, trying to settle our weather down if it can build in from the southwest. Also, we will have to watch how the remnants of a hurricane from Bermuda shake up the forecast later next week. No signs of a return to the oppressive heat of last Monday but strong August sunshine should warm us by day, when it appears.
Friday night
A low pressure near Iceland will keep a cool, blustery flow over northwestern parts of the UK. The wind will be much lighter for southeastern England.
In the blustery southwesterly there will be a scattering of showers for the Highlands and Islands but a fair, dry night for most of the UK. It will feel cool for many at 7 to 12C but the last of this week’s warm air will still be over the Home Counties so milder here with hardly any breeze after 26C in London by day.
Saturday
Saturday looks fine and bright with glorious sunshine for many in the morning. Fair weather cloud will build in from the west but for many, it will stay fair. There will be a few showers developing around the Irish Sea, Solway Firth and over Cumbria in the ongoing W/SW flow. Southeastern England will be calm with the highest temperatures for Suffolk, Essex and Kent at around 25C so a great day to be at the seaside.
Sunday
Sunday will be fine and bright again. There will be well scattered showers over Scotland and a few for the far north of England. In a westerly flow it will be eastern England down to Kent and Sussex seeing temperatures of 21 to 24C and feeling warm.
The outlook
A pulse of warmer air could lift temperatures in the south to 26 even 27C on Monday with a mild night to follow. Rain over Ireland on Monday will sweep over Britain during Tuesday and there will be a cool, much fresher midweek for the UK.
The following weekend will include a Bank Holiday Monday for parts of the UK. The main features in the outlook that far ahead are; a strong signal for this showery cooler westerly flow linked to low pressures away to the north, the Azores High which could extend into SW/S Britain and settle our weather down. That would allow higher daytime temperatures with more sunshine. Currently, the low pressure seems more dominant for Scotland and a better chance of fine weather in the south, but not always for exposed western coasts.
One point of interest will be Ernesto, currently a hurricane heading for Bermuda on Saturday. This should reach Newfoundland early on Tuesday as a post-tropical hurricane and will then head across the North Atlantic, interacting with the jet stream and main synoptic setup for our Bank Holiday weather.
The ECM model shows ex-Ernesto bringing very wet and windy weather to northern Scotland on Wednesday night. The GFS model, a more widespread unsettled and windy day on Thursday for the UK from the remnants of Ernesto as it approaches from the west.
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