We have been watching the potential for some unseasonably warm and sunny weather for October to affect the UK this weekend. Some earlier forecast model runs from the ECMWF had Britain in a south to south-westerly airflow with high-pressure building to the east, which would have pushed it northwards to affect most of the country. However, come the event, we are set to have mainly westerly winds, which will result in the warm sunshine being mainly confined to southern Britain.
In England from the Midlands southwards and in east Wales, maximum temperatures are set to reach the low to mid-20s Celsius until Tuesday, and this unusually warm weather has the potential to stick around in the south-east until Wednesday.
In contrast, much of Scotland is forecast to see exceptional amounts of rain over the weekend, due to a warm and moist air mass coming in from the west and south-west. The Met Office has issued an amber weather warning for rain for a large part of central and western Scotland, and all but the far north of Scotland is covered by a yellow weather warning. These warnings expire at 0600 on Sunday, but northern Scotland is set to see heavy persistent rain during Sunday which also has potential to cause problems.
The north-south split in the weather is already evident this morning, with persistent rain affecting most of Scotland, heavy in parts of the west, but mainly dry weather for England, Wales and Northern Ireland, with sunshine for some, particularly but not exclusively for the south of England.
During the rest of today, it will be predominantly cloudy in Northern Ireland and the far north of England but it will remain mainly dry, though some light rain will spread into the far north of England at times. The rain in Scotland will persist but will slowly ease, and northern Scotland will become dry with some sunshine coming through in the far north. From the south Midlands southwards there will increasingly be plenty of sunshine, while in intervening regions there will be some sunny intervals but often plenty of cloud. There will be a big north-south contrast in temperatures, with highs of only 7 to 10C in Scotland from the Scottish Lowlands northwards, but in England, Wales and Northern Ireland maximum temperatures will generally be 20C or higher, peaking at around 25C in inland parts of south-east England.
Tonight will be unusually warm for October in southern England with temperatures falling no lower than 13 to 15C, and elsewhere in England and Wales and Northern Ireland, minimum temperatures of 12 or 13C will be widespread. In Scotland, temperatures will fall to between 5 and 8C generally.
On Sunday, the rain in Scotland will become confined to northern Scotland but will turn heavy and persistent again, while for southern Scotland, Northern Ireland and northern England it will generally be dry and cloudy. Further south, especially in southern England and south Wales, there will be some sunshine. Some sunshine may also come through in central and southern Scotland late in the day, particularly to the east of high ground. Temperatures will be similar to today’s for most, though a little cooler in the north of England, only reaching 17 to 19C (though this is still above the long-term average for early October). In the south-east they will again peak at around 25C.
Another unusually warm night for October will follow in England, Wales and Northern Ireland, with some places falling no lower than 16C. Warmer air will also start to push into Scotland, though in Scotland minimum temperatures of around 10C are likely for most.
On Monday, the rain in northern Scotland will turn light and intermittent, though it will generally be cloudy in Scotland. Temperatures in Scotland will be higher than over the weekend, but still only reaching around 15C for most. Northern England and Northern Ireland can expect more sunshine than on Sunday, and it will remain warm and sunny in southern Britain, again with temperatures in the low to mid-20s Celsius in the southern half of England and in south and east Wales.
The rain will pep up again in Scotland on Tuesday, especially the west of Scotland, but warm sunny weather will hang on in east Wales and in England from the Midlands southwards, again with temperatures in the low to mid-20s Celsius. Through Wednesday, we can expect cooler temperatures to push south-eastwards through the country, though the warm sunshine may hold on for another day in the south-east of England.
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