An update on the hot weather building this week. The peak does look to be on Friday with temperatures moving into the 30s Celsius but what about Saturday?
This week will see heat reaching the UK, particularly for England and Wales with temperatures moving into the low 30s Celsius by Friday. Spain is already sweltering with temperatures around 40 Celsius in the south and forecast to reach 40C in Madrid by Friday. Paris could see 35C later this week in an ‘episode of very high heat’. There will be plenty of fine, settled weather and sunshine allowing this heat to build. Spain has Heatwave warnings all week and although the UK may or may not reach the criteria for an official heatwave, some people might find the high temperatures uncomfortable. Others will be delighted, especially if the warmth lasts into the weekend.
Overall, it’s a southeast / northwest split with the SE being hottest and northwest UK mostly sticking with temperatures in the teens. Any sunshine will still feel warm.
Thursday across England temperatures will be into the 20s Celsius, also for eastern Wales and possibly eastern Scotland. There are some differences in the forecast for Friday
Both show heat for England and Wales with warmth extending further north, tipping temperatures for all but the NW half of Scotland into the 20s Celsius and SE Northern Ireland could also warm up.
The UKV model is really going for the heat on Friday, especially as it looks quite blustery. The Met Office are mentioning 34C, these charts show even higher. The June record is 35.6C.
Today, June 14th is Heat Action Day. This relates to extended periods of unusual heat, not just a one-day wonder. Heatwaves are deadly but here in the UK, there has to be a balance of chatting about fine weather and high temperatures which people initially could be looking forward to. And then the health impacts on certain groups or if the heat continues. Also with climate change, heatwaves are becoming more likely around the world and more extreme.
Preparations for rising temperatures might just be a sun hat and sunscreen. Both important.
“There are simple actions we can all take to protect ourselves, our neighbours, our family members and friends. These include drinking water, resting in the shade, and avoiding outdoor activity in the hottest part of the day.”
One day overdoing it in the hot sun, or not drinking enough water can make you feel really unwell. Here in the UK, the contrast of sudden heat and sunshine can lead to people stay outside for too long, and then short-term sickness. However, it’s worth thinking and planning for the heat, if it is just a day or a week.
A low pressure between the Azores and Madeira is guiding the hot air northwards. High pressure over the UK will allow plenty of fine weather but frontal bands reach Northern Ireland and Scotland on Thursday. A deeper low pressure moves towards Iceland during Friday and the cold front from this will be more significant. This front will mark the change from the intense heat of Friday to cooler, fresher conditions by the end of the weekend.
There is a lot of uncertainty about this change. How long the front will take to reach SE Britain, so Saturday could be very warm again. In that warm plume there could be showery outbreaks, even thundery ones with instability ahead of the cold front. A low pressure to the south could get caught up in the flow at the weekend and enhance the shower risk. The models disagree about this and the timing of the cold front southwards, hence the low confidence.
There is a strong signal for the frontal band to allow the fresher air in from the northwest during Saturday but some uncertainty how far south it will reach. So, looking at the two charts, borderline areas might need to wait another day for the forecast to firm up a bit. Still hot in the south and then fading for most, if not all by Sunday.
Will it be hot? where you are.
