It is very mild out there. Temperatures have been in the mid-teens with Cambridge recording 17.6C on Tuesday. And it will remain mild into Thursday, so Bonfire Night is looking frost-free.
This mild air is coming up from the southwest with a conveyor of frontal rain troubling western Europe. At the start of the week, ex-hurricane Melissa (which hit Jamaica as a Cat.5) added its tropical energy to the weather in the north Atlantic as an extra-tropical low. This has been lurking close to Iceland but now a new low pressure is moving into the Bay of Biscay
Accumulated rainfall totals from Netweather Radar (24 hours to 0815 Weds 5th Nov)
Heavy rain this week has led to flooding and travel disruption. In Wales, there has been flooding in Swansea, Carmarthenshire, and Pembrokeshire with deep water on some roads and interruptions to rail services. There were still flood warnings on Wednesday morning for the rivers Taf, Teifi and Towy.
Cumbria has also seen heavy rain with roads submerged and drivers still attempting to plough through the deep waters, having to be rescued. Flood warnings remain for parts of Cumbria, although levels are dropping on the rivers Cocker and Derwent. The West Coast Mainline railway has now reopened after a landslip in heavy rain at the start of the week.
Tonight we will see a supermoon, appearing larger and brighter this week due to its elliptical path. There are concerns about coastal flooding with spring tides coming up and an additional push of water onshore, in the southwesterly flow.
With Flood Alerts from the Environment Agencies, people are being warned to avoid low-lying coastal roads, promenades, car parks and harbour footpaths which may be flooded.
“Take care and avoid walking, cycling or driving through flood water.” Env. Agency
The UK remains in the warm sector with frontal bands sliding northwards. Its a complicated picture with several fronts but the main shift is northwards with the rain clearing north Wales, and Northern Ireland at lunchtime. Northern Scotland has an easterly flow ahead of the frontal rain but this rain moves over Scotland today.
Breaks will begin to appear in the cloud cover, so rather than a grey damp picture the afternoon could brighten up and it will feel very mild. Temperatures could reach 16 to 18C, so well above average.
For Wednesday evening, there will be rain in the north, and a small risk of showers for western coasts of Britain but for many it's looking fine.
There are signs that there will be outbreaks of rain this evening for southern Scotland, even over the Central Belt with the main frontal band over the far north of the mainland and the Northern Isles. The winds will be very light over Scotland.
For the rest of the UK, many areas should get away with fair weather this evening and it won’t be cold. There is still the risk of some heavy showers perhaps brushing the coast of County Down, reaching SW Wales and later into Cornwall. The winds will ease down this evening. There will be light southerly winds, no longer blustery but still a flow stirring the air.
With the cloud cover thinning and breaking, you may see intriguing moonshine coming through the clouds at times.
Thursday looks very mixed. There will be clusters of heavy showers working their way northwards in the very mild flow. Where breaks appear in the cloud cover, it will change from grey and drab to a glorious November day with everyone commenting “isn’t it warm”. Keep an eye on the Netweather Radar for these heavier downpours but for many, it will be a fair day.
Other parts of western Europe have been seeing heavy rain and thunderstorms linked to the same frontal boundary. Portugal started Wednesday with a terrific lightning show and there are weather warnings across the Iberian peninsula linked to this same weather system. France has warnings for Thursday of heavy rain, flooding, wind and thunderstorms for western and southwestern regions.
Much of Britain will still be in the very mild air with Scotland and Northern Ireland around 13 to 15C on Thursday. Denmark will also see temperatures lifting in the southerly flow, as will Oslo and Stockholm, as the warm front moves over southern Scandinavia.
The air will become more stirred by the weekend, so not as mild for the UK later this week.
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