Not a washout this weekend but turning wet and windy later

This week has brought a change in the weather; it feels more like autumn. There have been heavy showers and a cooler feel in the air. Atlantic low pressures are steering cooler north Atlantic air over the UK with a rash of showers. At the weekend, this theme continues on Saturday with blustery downpours mixed with bright spells.

There will be a quieter lull overnight before a fine sunny start on Sunday. However, there is a lively autumnal low pressure heading our way. There has been some uncertainty this week about its track and how it will develop. There will be rain, much-needed rain. It will be windy, although perhaps more so by Monday as the low pulls away into the North Sea. There aren’t any Met Office warnings out yet as there is still low confidence around how impactful this wet and windy weather might be. Also, strong winds and coastal gales on Monday morning would have more impact than in the middle of Sunday night. A heads up at this stage, if you have a wobbly fence. This might be the weekend for a bit of DIY as autumn sets in. Or if you are dropping off at college/university this weekend.

On Friday night, clusters of heavy showers will march eastwards, with a scattering expected at the start of Saturday.

There will be fine sunshine for Saturday morning, but the showers will get going again with some hefty downpours by lunchtime. If you have an event on Saturday, there is a risk of showers in the day, but no way to pinpoint the timing of a downpour at this stage. You would need to watch the Netweather Radar on the day to see if a shower was heading your way. There will be bright or sunny spells and a light to moderate SW breeze. Any sunshine will make it feel warm but the air is cool, and the showers will add to that coolness. 

Saturday night becomes drier with lighter winds with a ridge of high pressure ahead of the next weather system.

There will be a sunny morning for northern and eastern Britain and a fine start for more of Britain with light winds and an increasingly milky sky. There is a strong signal for frontal rain to be over southwestern Britain before 10am on Sunday but the GFS model keeps it over Devon and Cornwall, whereas the ECM and UKV models have it further along with rain into Pembrokeshire and over the Bristol Channel.

The GFS model keeps northern and eastern Britain dry for much of the day, although with increasing cloud as Northern Ireland and other parts of Britain turn wet. The UKV model takes heavy rain over Northern Ireland and north Wales at lunchtime and on to western Scotland and Yorkshire as clusters of heavy showers tuck into the southwest.  The ECM rotates heavy rain over Wales, the Midlands and southeastern England, allowing northern Britain to have a fair day. There will be strong winds, even gales, accompanying the heavy rainbands and gusty winds as the hefty showers follow on. These winds start as southeasterly and veer to the southwest. There could be some warmer air pulled up from the south on Sunday, allowing temperatures in sunnier spots to reach 22C.

Sunday night will be windy away from the centre of the low with showers rotating around the low pressure. 

Depending on where the low ends up, there will be calmer conditions in the centre but strong winds to the north and south with the risk of gales, even severe gales for exposed parts. There is uncertainty here, as it is several days ahead. The UKV model has the Northern Isles in a strong NE wind with gales likely and rough seas. For southern Britain, there is a fresh to strong W/SW wind with gales, even severe gales for Pembrokeshire and very windy weather up the Bristol Channel to start the day.