“Melissa is now a category 5 hurricane - destructive winds and storm surge and catastrophic flooding will worsen on Jamaica through the day and into tonight.” NHC Monday 27th Oct
Hurricane Melissa has strengthened to a Category 5 hurricane "Reports from NOAA and Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft indicate the central pressure has fallen to near 908 mb, with both aircraft releasing dropsondes in the northeastern eyewall that support an initial intensity of 145 kt (166mph). The NOAA aircraft left the storm early after experiencing severe turbulence in the southwestern eyewall. "
From the current forecast the centre of Hurricane Melissa will be near of over Jamaica late on Monday night or early on Tuesday (local time) but there are hurricane warnings for all of Jamaica, then eastern Cuba for Tuesday night, also warnings/watches for Haiti, the Bahamas and the Turks & Caicos by Wednesday.
The advice in Jamaica is to not venture out of “safe shelter” as destructive winds and terrible flooding with landslides are forecast on Monday through the night into Tuesday. There have been mandatory evacuation orders for low lying regions, to head to higher ground or official shelters. The hurricane has been heading west but is forecast to turn northwards straight towards Jamaica. It is a slow-moving hurricane which means that the rainfall amounts will be huge and lethal.
NHC Discussion “A painstakingly slow turn toward the northwest and north is expected during the next 24 hours, and Melissa is forecast to make landfall on the south coast of Jamaica Tuesday morning and emerge off the north coast by Tuesday afternoon.”
It is not only the power of the Category 5 "catastrophic" winds but the impact of the tropical rains and storm surge ahead of the cyclone. There is mention of "life-threatening flash flooding and numerous landslides". "extensive infrastructural damage, long-lasting power, communication outages, and isolated communities."
NHC - "RAINFALL: Melissa is expected to bring rainfall of 15 to 30” to portions of Jamaica and additional rainfall of 8 to 16” for southern Hispaniola through Wednesday, with storm total local maxima of 40” possible. Catastrophic flash flooding and numerous landslides are likely. For eastern Cuba, storm total rainfall of 10 to 15” , with local amounts to 20”, is expected today through Wednesday”
STORM SURGE: A life-threatening storm surge is likely along the south coast of Jamaica tonight and on Tuesday. Peak storm surge heights could reach 9 to 13 feet above ground level, near and to the east of where the center of Melissa makes landfall. This storm surge will be accompanied by large and destructive waves. "
There is a potential for significant storm surge along the southeast coast of Cuba late Tuesday or Wednesday.
The advice from the Jamaica Constabulary Force (JCF) is to 1. Stay informed by following official updates, not sharing unverified information or rumours. 2. Secure your home, important documents, and essential supplies. Familiarise yourself with the nearest shelter locations and evacuation routes. Check on elderly relatives, persons with disabilities, and neighbours who may require assistance. Also, considerations for 3. Public Order and Safety: to avoid flooded or unsafe roads and comply with all curfews, road closures, and evacuation orders issued by the authorities.
A more hopeful outlook, as the strongest hurricane in over 200 years bears down on the Caribbean island of Jamaica, a monster category 5 cyclone, 4. Community Spirit:
“Jamaicans are known for our strength and unity. Let us continue to look out for one another, particularly the most vulnerable among us…The JCF remains fully mobilised to support national response efforts. Together, we will weather this storm safely and emerge stronger.”
Further discussion on Melissa in the Netweather forum.
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