This week, we are heading towards a pattern of high pressure and mostly light winds. By Friday, an area of high pressure will be right over the UK, so a very different picture compared to last week when Storm Amy was approaching.
Storm Amy (provisionally) recorded the lowest October air pressure on record with 947.9 hPa at Baltasound, Shetland. Northern Ireland recorded 92mph, its strongest October wind gust on record as Tiree off western Scotland experienced a 96mph gust.
For the end of the working week, there will be a moderate westerly for northern Scotland with patchy rain, but calm conditions for southern Britain, where it will be drier with bright spells.
Before that, we have warmer air from the southwest lifting temperatures on Monday. To the lee of the Grampian mountains, Northeast Scotland could see 21 or 22C today. Central, eastern and southeastern England should see 18 to 20C with much lighter winds and sunshine. Areas exposed to brisk SW winds won’t feel as mild. NW Scotland will turn increasingly wet and windy for a time this afternoon as a waving front nears with gales.
There is high pressure close to southern Britain, centred over France with warmer air being drawn up from the mid Atlantic around the western flank.
Fronts begin to pile up from the northwest tonight but they tend to weaken as they come up against the southern high. For much of the UK, it will be a dry, mild night and calm for southern England. It will remain very windy in the far northwest with the frontal rain edging over more of Scotland, although eastern areas will stay mostly dry. The front will bring more cloud to Northern Ireland with patchy rain through Tuesday morning which will give some heavier bursts to SW Scotland and around the Solway Firth. Behind this, there will be clearing skies and colder air for Scotland by mid afternoon. Ahead of the rainband there will be bright spells and temperatures widely around 16 or 17C.
Through the afternoon, it will become wet for Cumbria with an onshore wind as the cold continues to creep southwards. It will be a cooler night for the northern half of the UK but still mild in the south.
For Wednesday morning , the fading frontal band will bring a grey cloudy start for southern England but sunny skies further north where the air will feel cooler. This will be a noticeable change midweek after the mild, even warm start. The far northwest of Scotland has another damp and windy day but elsewhere will be fair.
During Wednesday night, another frontal band will dip over central, perhaps southwest Scotland bringing more cloud to Northern Ireland and saving the temperatures from falling away. To the south of this cloud band it will be a cooler night with temperatures down into single figures for England and Wales.
Thursday brings a lot of fine weather and it will feel warm in the autumn sunshine. The lingering frontal band will bring more cloud and patchy rain to some western parts of Britain, and Northern Ireland with a brisk westerly wind for Scotland. Further south, as the high pressure builds in, it will be a quieter day.
As the high pressure takes hold, the frontal bands are pushed away to the north but it looks like quite a cloudy high. The westerly flow will bring a lot of moisture off the Atlantic and western coasts could see a grey, even damp feeling on Friday. Further east, it will be brighter.
Through this week, it will always be windy or blustery in the north with lighter winds further south. Northwest then western Scotland will see rain. Other areas will have a lot of dry weather this week. As autumn progresses, it can feel pleasantly warm in sheltered sunshine but chilly in the breeze, when the sun disappears. The change from the warm air to the midweek cooler air is worth noting. And later in the week, there is likely to be fog patches overnight where skies clear but it is tricky to pinpoint where with this cloudy high building in.
The lack of sustained rainfall this autumn in parts of the UK will continue to cause concern for drought areas and those in high water scarcity.
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