The fine autumn weather doesn't last for everyone this weekend

High pressure over the UK has brought settled, fine weather this week. Temperatures have been below average with nighttime frosts but by day, it has felt pleasant in the sunshine for sheltered or calm spots. The high pressure won’t quite hold on for the weekend, and an Atlantic weather front will bring rain to western areas on Saturday.

For now, the clear skies will bring another nippy evening and night as the sunshine disappears. There will be a breeze off the North Sea for eastern England but SW Britain looks chilly as temperatures in rural spots fall to freezing. 

Cloud will appear from the southeast on Saturday morning and that will make it feel cooler. Northern Ireland, Wales, SW England and western Scotland will have plenty of sunshine. For the rest of Scotland and parts of northern England, there will be some cloud but good sunny spells as the cloud from the southeast spills over more of central England during the afternoon. Across the UK, Friday evening looks fair but cool with just one or two showers pestering North Sea or English Channel coasts. Northern and western Scotland, as well as Northern Ireland, will become blustery with a moderate to fresh southerly wind.  

Overnight, the rain band will reach Northern Ireland. The model rainfall from the UKV is shown until 10am on Saturday morning with dry weather over much of Britain. Eastern Britain will start off fine even sunny but there will be increasing frontal cloud from the west. 

Now you may remember last Saturday, particularly if you were stuck under the rainband that day. It was foul for Wales and northern England as the rain just kept on coming. It swayed into SE Scotland for a time but really it was stuck. Either side of the band, the day wasn’t too bad. 

For this coming Saturday, there will be very wet weather for western Scotland, particularly the hills and mountains with blustery southerly winds. There will be a brighter clearance behind the frontal rain for western counties of Northern Ireland but County Down, County Antrim and maybe Co.Armagh could be stuck under the rain through the morning and this will make the day feel cool. There has been a signal for line convection to develop late morning for the west/SW coast of Scotland and County Antrim. These areas could see intense rainfall and this brings the risk of localised flooding. It is something to watch in these areas towards lunchtime. The problem with the forecast, and this is similar to last week, is that a wave could develop along the frontal band and trying to pin down the movement of the rain becomes difficult. Will it edge eastwards or get stuck along the west coast of Britain?

There is some overlap in this 24-hour rainfall chart with the one above from Friday; this starts at 4am on Saturday. It shows the heaviest rain for western Scotland but very little rain reaching the far north, northeast of Scotland or SE Britain even eastern England. 

The day will really improve for Northern Ireland but much of England could see a fine day and feel quite warm if any sunny spells linger. It will be the progress of outbreaks of rain around the front which will change on Saturday, moving inland for Scotland, reaching north Wales in the afternoon and affecting coastal counties of NW England and the Isle of Man.

There will be a few clusters of showers on Sunday but overall a lot of fine and bright weather.