High pressure once again takes control of the UK's weather this week, bringing largely dry, settled, and increasingly sunny conditions. Expect a warming trend by day, though nights may start chilly.
The upcoming week across the UK will be largely dry and increasingly sunny, as a significant area of high pressure establishes itself over the country. The high will act to deflect Atlantic weather systems, allowing settled conditions to prevail through to Tuesday, the 13th of May.
This week's weather is primarily dictated by this dominant anticyclone. Initially, its position is expected to be slightly to the north or northeast of the UK. This orientation means that during the first part of the week (Tuesday 6th - Wednesday 7th), southern and eastern parts of the UK will experience an easterly or northeasterly breeze. This airflow, originating from the near continent or the North Sea, will introduce relatively cool air, making conditions feel noticeably cooler along North Sea coasts compared to more sheltered western areas.
Towards the weekend and into early next week (from around Thursday 8th onwards), the high pressure is forecast to persist, potentially shifting slightly or strengthening. This should permit temperatures to rise more widely as the cooler breeze diminishes and the strong May sunshine effectively heats the ground.
While temperatures are generally expected to be slightly above the average for early May, cool nights are anticipated, particularly early in the week. A key characteristic of this high-pressure setup will be a marked difference between day and night temperatures (a significant diurnal range). Clear skies allow daytime solar heating but also permit rapid heat loss after sunset.
Consequently, chilly nights are expected, especially from Tuesday through to Thursday morning. Minimum temperatures could approach freezing in susceptible rural locations, creating a risk of patchy frost. Night-time lows are forecast to range from around 1C in the coldest spots to 7C or 8C in milder urban areas.
Daytime temperatures, however, will show a steady increase. After the cool starts, Tuesday and Wednesday may see highs generally between 14C and 18C, feeling warmest in sheltered western areas. From Thursday onwards, the warming trend becomes more pronounced. Widespread highs of 17C to 21C are likely. By the weekend (Saturday 10th - Sunday 11th), parts of the south and central England could reach the low twenties Celsius (20C to 23C), feeling pleasantly warm in the sunshine. Northern areas will also experience temperatures comfortably above average, likely reaching the high teens (17C to 19C).
The high-pressure system will effectively suppress cloud development and rainfall for most areas. The majority of the UK will remain dry throughout the forecast period.
There are minor exceptions. Early in the week (Tuesday/Wednesday), the easterly breeze may bring a few isolated light showers to the eastern coasts of England. Later in the week, from the weekend onwards, there is a small possibility of isolated, heavier showers developing in the far south or southwest. These would likely be convective in nature, triggered by surface heating, rather than organised rain bands. For most, however, conditions will remain dry. Compared to the May average rainfall (around 71mm for the UK), this week is expected to be significantly drier.
The week ahead is characterised by high pressure, resulting in predominantly dry, increasingly sunny conditions. Daytime temperatures will become pleasantly warm, following some chilly nights with frost risk early in the period. An easterly breeze will make it feel cooler in the east initially. The risk of rain is very low for most, though isolated showers are possible on eastern coasts early on and in the far south/southwest later. Overall, a spell of fine spring weather is expected for most of the UK.
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