COP29 - Politics, promises and our heating planet

Delegations and world leaders are attending COP29 in Baku, Azerbaijan. Governments use this annual event to discuss scientific data and their country’s plans while campaigning or negotiating how to address climate change. 

This 29th session of the Conference of Parties (COP29) is part of the UNFCCC, the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change. It is a series of formal meetings where governments assess and reflect on global efforts to progress the Paris Agreement and Convection and also to limit global warming to 1.5°C. 

The State of the Climate

The World Meteorological Organisation (WMO) has just issued its regular State of the Climate update. Significant cuts to fossil fuel emissions are needed to have a chance of staying well below 2°C warming above pre-industrial levels. Meeting the 1.5°C target to avoid the worst impacts of climate change looks vulnerable.

UN Secretary-General Antonio Guterres told world leaders that the world is seeing “a master class in climate destruction” in a year virtually certain to be the hottest on record.

The year 2024 is on track to be the warmest year on record after an extended streak of exceptionally high monthly global mean temperatures. 2024 will be the first year above 1.5C of global warming. 2015-2024 will be the warmest ten years on record; the loss of ice from glaciers, sea-level rise and ocean heating are accelerating; and extreme weather is wreaking havoc on communities and economies across the world.

Global carbon emissions from fossil fuels have reached a record high in 2024 according to Global Carbon Project. “Fossil and land-use change CO2 emissions are set to rise exacerbated by drought conditions from deforestation and degradation due to forest fires in a time of El Nino.” With more CO2 in the atmosphere, global warming increases at an alarming rate.

Global fossil fuel emissions in 2024; Coal 41%, Oil 32% and Gas 21% are the current contributions. China has the largest proportion 32% of the global total. US emissions sit at 13% with both countries possibly managing small decreases. India has 8% of global emissions but is forecast to increase by 4.6% as the EU emissions sit at 7% of the global total but projected to decrease by 3.8%

Away from country totals, international aviation and shipping is 3% of the global total and projected to increase by 7.8% in 2024 but this would still be less than pre-pandemic levels in 2019 (Data from Global Carbon Project)

Climate action is taking hold; the use of electric vehicles and renewables such as wind, solar, hydroelectric and bioenergy along with decreasing deforestation emissions (reforestation and new forests) but these are small by comparison. 
Wildfire emissions are also a concern, with wildfire events becoming more likely in heat or drought conditions. 

“Greenhouse gases reached record observed levels in 2023. Realtime data indicate that they will continue to rise in 2024” WMO

Whilst there were grave concerns in the report as ocean heat content and sea level continue to rise, there was progress for the Early Warnings for All (EW4All). This initiative aims to protect every individual on Earth from hazardous weather, water or climate events by life-saving early warning systems by the end of 2027. There are still gaps with only 55% of countries having systems in place by March this year, 108 countries. 

COP29  attendees

There are now 198 Parties (197 countries plus the European Union) to the Convention, constituting near-universal membership. World leaders not attending including US President Biden, the Brazilian President due to a recent injury and the European President Ursula von der Leyen due to new European Commission duties.

There is also a diary clash, next week the leaders of the most powerful countries will be on the other side of the world in Brazil for The G20 Summit in Rio de Janeiro, with leaders of the 19 member countries, plus the African Union and the European Union.

“The world’s biggest polluters and strongest economies — China and the United States — aren’t sending their No. 1s. Neither are India and Indonesia. That’s the world’s four most populous nations, with more than 42% of all the world’s people.”APNews

However, Brazil is sending the second largest delegation to COP29 after the host country. Next Turkey, UAE,  China, Russia and Indonesia. The UK is sending 470 delegates with PM Sir Kier Starmer speaking on the second day. North Korea has sent five people and although no official delegation for Afghanistan, it seems that the Taliban will send two observers.

Breaking news from COP, the Argentine contingent has been told to leave.

“It’s true. We have instructions from the ministry of foreign affairs to no longer participate. That’s all I can tell you,” Argentina’s undersecretary for the environment, Ana Lamas. Argentina’s far right leader Milei has previously said that the climate crisis was a “socialist lie”.

What is the UK saying?

Prime Minister Keir Starmer announced an 81% emissions reduction target on 1990 levels by 2035, in line with the Paris Agreement goal to limit warming to 1.5°C above pre-industrial times. The U.K. had already pledged 78% as greenhouse gas emissions have fallen by almost half from 1990 levels, mainly because of the almost complete removal of coal from British electricity generation.

With an early statement like this, it is hoped that other countries would also set strong targets. However, some attendees had pressing domestic issues. The Spanish Prime Minister Pedro announced an additional €3.76 billion ($4 billion) to reinforce €10.6 billion in flood aid pledged last week after a devastating DANA event with further red rain warnings and flooding midweek.

Sánchez noted that the deadly floods in his country last month “would have been less likely and less intense without the effect of climate change.” Central Europe was hit by devastating flooding in Storm Boris in September. These are not remote events for the UK, the Spanish flooding has impacted familiar holiday destinations with Malaga airport and hospitals flooded on Wednesday 13th as 3,000 people were evacuated in the region.

Barbados was hit by staggering damage from Hurricane Beryl earlier in 2024. Prime Minister Mia Amor Mottley said “These extreme weather events that the world is facing daily suggest that humanity and the planet are hurtling towards catastrophe,” 

For politicians, this is a tricky balance. Current issues and voters against longer-term vision and commitment. The major focus of talks this year is climate finance. Poorer nations need financial help to transition away from fossil fuels and to adapt, often as they are more vulnerable., Certainly the case for the Islands Nations. 

Wealthy nations compensate poor countries for damage from the increasing weather extremes. This involves huge amounts of money, anywhere from $100 billion a year to $1.3 trillion a year. That money “is not charity, it’s an investment,” Guterres said. “Developing countries must not leave Baku empty-handed.”

UK PM remarks at COP29: 12th November 2024

"The way I see it, there are two paths ahead: One, the path of inaction and delay, Leading to further decline and vulnerability. Warming above 1.5 degrees will expose hundreds of thousands more people in the UK to flood risk, greater economic instability, and national insecurity.

Or second, the path we walk, eyes wide open, not just to the challenges of today, but also fixed firmly on the opportunities of tomorrow. This is the path towards national security. Energy independence.  And the economic stability necessary to boost living standards for working people. " 

COP29 runs from 11th until 22nd November 2024