UK weather for 4th July after the soggy General Election announcement

The weather was certainly centre stage for the start of General Election fever. As the current Prime Minister, Rishi Sunak stood outside Downing Street in the pouring rain the soggy spectacle was a huge distraction to the message being announced. With no BSL signer and very loud background music, you might wonder if this additional soggy mishap was just a passing shower. Was it unfortunate to be caught in a downpour just as the speech began? Well, no. If someone had looked at the Netweather radar sequence on Wednesday afternoon, it was always going to rain. 

What about the UK weather on the 4th of July?

A General Election is always on a Thursday but it can be held at any time of the year. The past few have been December 2019, June 2017 and May 2015. This announcement caught many on the hop with summer news scheduling already focused on the Euro 2024 football with England and Scotland’s men's teams participating.

It will be summertime with average temperatures across the UK up to 19.4C, having risen in past decades from 18.6C. (UK climate averages record in periods 1981-2010, 1971-2000 and 1961-1990). For southern England July temperatures are usually in the low 20sC, Northern Ireland around 18C, Scotland 16 or 17C and Wales 18 or 19C. 

Back in 1976, yes the hot dry summer, temperatures reached 34.1C (93F) on 4th July in Cheltenham, Gloucs and also for North Heath, West Sussex. Two years later Clashnoir in northern Scotland recorded only 7.5C on the 5th July 1978, the lowest daily maximum temperature on record for the month of July, showing how much summer temperatures can vary up and down the country. The highest UK temperature on record for July is the all-time UK temperature record of 40.3C. This occurred on the 19th July 2022 when the UK was hit by heatwave conditions.

July 4th 2023 was a mixed day with bright spells and showers. Hull reached 22.0C. Hazelrigg in Lancashire saw the most sunshine with 13.2 hours and Lowestoft in Suffolk had a wet day with 52.2mm of rain. There was a lot of showery rain over southern and southeastern England. London Heathrow recorded 17.7C at 1pm on the 4th 

July 4th 2022 was another mixed day with showers in the north and west but brighter, fine weather for southeastern Britain. 14.8 hours of sunshine for Hastings in E.Sussex and Faversham in Kent reached 24.5C. Cassley in Sutherland saw 12mm of rain.  London Heathrow had reached 21.1C by 1pm on the 4th

July 4th 2021 was an unsettled day with showers. Leconsfiedl in Humberside reached 24.6C with Stornoway in the Western Isles seeing 10.9 hours of sunshine. Edinburgh recorded 56.6mm of rainfall with heavy showers and thunderstorms for parts of England.  London Heathrow recorded19.5C at 1pm on the 4th

The weekly trend forecast charts from ECMWF aren’t out yet, the first hints for early July will be shown next week. The seasonal anomaly charts used for wildfire risk by Copernicus as a long-range seasonal forecast show warmth with higher-than-average temperatures.

Also higher than average rainfall near to northern parts of the UK but average rainfall for the month over southern Britain. The August and September charts show drier-than-average conditions for August/September in the south. 

It’s far too early to predict the actual weather for the 4th July. And as we’ve seen from May 22nd, the British weather can be a spoilsport. It was a filthy day in other parts of the UK with heavy and persistent rain. Carlisle recorded 65.6mm of rain, over two inches. 

December elections have to contend with the risk of ice, snow and hardly any daylight hours. May weather can vary from heat and sunshine to rain, wind, even late sleet. May is a very variable time of year for weather. July, you would imagine could be warm, there is plenty of daylight whether it will be dry or not, we will have to wait and see. Meanwhile, keep an eye on the radar to see if rain is heading your way.