temperatures overnight were in the mid-teens, strangely warm. This warmth will last into the weekend but turning cooler from the NW by Saturday night. Fine for most, still raining in western Scotland.
A strangely warm night and start to Friday with temperatures close to Scotland and Northern Ireland’s mildest October nights. The flow of warm air from the south will continue into the weekend. Hawarden in North Wales saw 21.8C yesterday. Temperatures today will be around 17 to 21C, October weather can vary so much. Think of the rain on Monday, there can be autumn storms, fog, frost and then warm sunshine. What a month. There is a murky start this morning for parts of eastern England. There has been fog and now low cloud. The frontal cloud over Northern Ireland and Scotland trapped the mild air.
The skies have been beautiful with stunning sunrise colours, lenticular clouds in yesterday’s brisk winds. Rainbow colouring in clouds of Iridescence and halos. At times there has been a good deal of cloud about making the warm air seem even weirder without full sunshine.
Currently, high pressure extending out of Russia is bringing settled weather across a swathe of mid-Europe. Low pressure over the Adriatic and Greece is giving heavy downpours and very unsettled weather after flooding in Italy. There is a low pressure lurking south of Iceland. This one contains the remnants of hurricane Sam, all the time getting mixed about and diluted but this low will move east finally and affect the far north of Scotland on Sunday. Its weather fronts are responsible for all the rain over western Scotland and more of NW UK today. As that low moves in it will shift the flow away from the warm southerly to a fresher westerly, By Saturday night it will be noticeably cooler with temperatures down into single figures. As high pressure builds in from the west, we keep the warmer air aloft, but the Northern Isles, Caithness and Grampian will pull down colder air with an air frost likely by Tuesday morning.
So warm today and Saturday, cooling down in the north by Sunday and then colder nights into next week with daytime temperatures in the mid-teens, occasionally up to 18C.
For Scotland and Northern Ireland, although it has been very mild there is still this band of rain and more cloud. This frontal boundary continues to wave about, nudging back to the northwest during Friday night which should bring a lull in the rain for the mainland. Argyll saw 33mm of rain on Thursday, precaution routes are already being used for the usual landslide roads. Cork and Kerry are also in for a lot of rain and as this band persists for western Scotland there could be localised flooding. “Surface water is also expected to cause disruption to local travel, particularly in known trouble spots” SEPA.
Away from the cloud and patchy rain over Northern Ireland and north & west Scotland, there will be a lot of fine, bright and warm weather today. Lighter winds from the south or southwest.
The frontal rain looks to move east away from Northern Ireland on Saturday morning, so brighter but fresher here. Rain reaching eastern Scotland then into Cumbria and Gwynedd by Saturday afternoon. Again, ahead of this, there will be more fair, bright weather with more sunshine for SE Britain and warm again.
During Saturday evening the frontal band sinks SE over northern England and Wales with patchy rain and more cloud. Cooler to the NW but still mild to the SE. The last bit of cloud and slight dampness will stretch from The Wash to the Bristol Channel for the start of Sunday. Fog for the southeast on Sunday morning with light winds and blustery showers in the far north of Scotland as that low pressure passes by.
