Will it snow, will we get a White Christmas, will it snow on the General Election Day and will there be another Beast from the East?
Tricky questions and at the moment we don’t know the answers. Forecasting snow in the UK can be quite difficult the day before, never mind a month in advance. So, when you see newspaper headlines screaming about incoming huge amounts of snow or promising a Christmas covering, do bear this in mind. They say the same every single year. The bookies have been at it too, lowering their odds of a white Christmas with mentions of random cold winter bets that don’t seem to actually exist anywhere. They always lower their odds as December approaches, always. It has nothing to do with the forecast.
A ‘weather’ person throws out a promise of snow and states 'It will get colder in the next few weeks and there will be some snow. This is most likely in the north and west of the UK. ' It’s going to get colder in December, thanks for the update.
Google “UK snow” and see how many articles the Express has issued today. Don’t click on them and certainly don’t share them. If you really feel the need, just screenshot it and share the pic, then at least you don’t enhance their clickbait approach. This is what forecasters are up against, every single day a feed of sensational stories being absorbed in shops and on Facebook. What happens when there is real serious weather coming up that needs attention and warning about?
If you are thinking about Christmas, say traveling, then the recent flooding and wet weather have already caused disruption to the railways and on some roads. Spurious cold weather and snow claims aren't helpful at this stage. Snow actually falling on Christmas Day isn’t that likely and with our warming global climate, claims of the coldest ever winter seem more than unlikely, but not impossible.
December 25th and December 12th are both too far ahead for details. For a White Christmas, the Met Office defines the term as at least one snowflake falling in a specific location during the 24 hours of December 25. There is a list of places and odds around the UK.
If you are worried about bad weather for the general election, the deadline for applying to postal vote is by Tuesday November 26th, you need your application in by 5pm for England, Scotland and Wales. Then the weather on the day won't matter for your vote.
December weather can bring fine winter sunshine with a chill in the air, fog and frost if it is calm. Winter storms with wild winds and lashing rain or it can snow with ice and low temperatures. It is also dark early, all of which might put people off venturing out to vote, or popping by on their way home from work..
It’s been snowing in Lapland. If you remember back to last year there was a lack of snow, even no snow at all for parts of northern Finland with special Christmas trips being canceled in early December. All seems well and snowy this season.
Beast from the East news. There has been some chat about SSW, Sudden Stratospheric Warming which occurs high in the atmosphere. Effects after a SSW include reducing the westerly zonal flow and interrupting milder winds with a higher chance of colder weather in the following weeks and months. This could then include a spell of very cold easterly flow for the UK around a Scandinavian high pressure and snow from the east.
The Met Office model is not showing any signs, yet. Remember the 2018 snow didn’t happen until the start of March and we are able to give out early warnings well before the cold hit. The chat is around the American ensemble model which contains several runs with slightly different parameters and three members show SSW signs. If you are a Coldie (looking for cold, wanting snow) then a slight sign like this is eye-catching. It is not definite and wouldn’t make a difference anyway to our weather until 2020. Plenty more chat in the Netweather Forum.