UK Weather - Is it going to stop raining for the August Bank Holiday weekend?
Yes, it is. There is a Bank Holiday weekend coming up for most of the UK at the end of the month. August so far has seen a lot of rain, so for those with a long weekend off or just ending their summer holidays, it might be nice to have a bit of warmth and sunshine, for a change.
At 10 days ahead, it is at the far end of comfortable forecasting medium-range. If you are getting married on Saturday 24th August at 2pm, it’s not really worth giving too much weight to a symbol hourly forecast just yet. However, you can take themes this far ahead, especially if high pressure appears. High pressures don’t move much and if they settle in the right place, they can bring more settled, dry sometimes warm weather and summer sunshine.
And for the late August Bank holiday weekend, a high pressure is currently the dominant feature on our forecast charts! This means that it shouldn’t be as wet as it has been this month. Temperatures might move from current high teens/low 20sC higher into the twenties, maybe reaching 30C. There are signs of daytime warmth.
At this range, forecasts use ensemble forecasting, where the weather model is run over and over again with just a slight change in the initial conditions. You get back 50 postage stamps, or output solutions and they can be grouped and analysed to see if there is a preferred solution. If 45 out of the 50 showed high pressure over the UK, the forecasters would be quite happy to go with a fine trend with high confidence. If you get a mix of low pressure nearby with wind and rain, some to the north, others south, high nearby then confidence is lower.
However, the current forecast is showing high pressure and hints of warmth so there is hope.
The Tabloids always love a Bank Holiday to add to their extreme weather stories. Many have garbled up a story about Severe Tropical Storm Krosa (was a typhoon) which is hitting Japan today. Krosa is not coming for the UK. The original story talked about how large synoptic scale features like this can have impacts right up through the atmosphere. The Jetstream so far this month has been barrelling across the Atlantic right for the UK bringing low pressure after low and all this rain. Later in the month, this fast flow of air, high up in the atmosphere does look to shift further north, then the high pressure at the surface could take hold and bring the UK some more summer-like weather. This typhoon is not going to hop across North America and visit us. There aren’t any Atlantic hurricanes either before anyone asks.
Friday 16th and this coming weekend looks windy as a low pressure heads our way and lingers. The Met Office has already issued a rain warning for SW Britain. Next week the weather should settle down ready for some warm Bank Holiday sunshine. Stay tuned.