UK Weather: Mixed Weekend, Plume Of Heat Next Week
It's a very unsettled start to the weekend after a particularly wet night towards the South East, with still a fair number of showers across the country this morning.
Some over East Scotland and North West England are currently heavy, with still the odd rogue sharp shower still across the South East. Over West Scotland and Northern Ireland there are fewer showers, with a mainly dry day expected here. It's much better for the Open Golf at Portrush, with the East of Scotland seeing an improvement with fewer showers by the afternoon.
For England and Wales, Saturday will be a story of sunny intervals and showers. The showers will be most frequent in the West during the morning, spreading East later. Some will be heavy giving local hail and thunder, with probably fewer showers south of the M4 where you have the best chance of some places staying dry. In the West the showers will tend to fade through the afternoon when there'll be lengthening sunny spells towards evening.
Although light over parts of Scotland at first, winds will be quite blustery for a time from the South West or West, before decreasing a little towards evening in the South. Despite the unsettled conditions, temperatures will reach a warm 22 to 24C in the South East and South but 16 to 20C more generally.
There'll be further scattered showers into the evening mostly in the East, but they'll become largely confined to West facing coasts after dark. This'll allow skies to become broken after dark as a weak transient ridge crosses the country, with a few clear intervals overnight particularly where you have shelter from a mostly moderate South Westerly breeze. It's not expected to be a cold night though, with minimum temperatures mostly in the range 10 to 15C.
Sunday will be a much better day particularly in central and eastern areas, where there'll be sunny periods through the morning. The afternoon will probably see more cloud but it'll stay dry and bright. The South West and much of Wales should also remain dry but most western areas become cloudy into the afternoon. Across Northern Ireland there'll be rain moving in making it wet again for the closing stages of The Open Golf, with the rain heavy in places spreading to Cumbria and much of Scotland through the day.
A light South Westerly wind at first will freshen from the South, becoming strong in some exposed western areas later. It becomes warm, even very warm and slightly humid towards the South East by the afternoon, with top temperatures 22 to 25C in the East and South and 16 to 20C in the North and West.
Northern Ireland, much of Scotland and Cumbria see further occasionally heavy rain at times into the evening and overnight. There'll be a fresh or strong South to South West wind, that may give gales in exposed areas for a while. Other parts of northern England and the North and West of Wales may also see patchy rain, but elsewhere it'll stay dry. Across the East and South a southerly wind will be lighter and skies more broken in a mild night everywhere, that'll turn increasingly humid in the South, with temperatures falling no lower than 12 to 17C.
One thing we haven't seen much of so far this summer is a 'Spanish plume', but we could see one next week, as temperatures 'rocket into the low thirties Celsius over parts of England.
Northern Ireland and the North and West of Scotland will also become very warm by midweek, when there'll be the increasing risk of a few heavy showers or thunderstorms breaking-out in a very oppressive atmosphere.