As meteorological autumn begins, Central England Temperature data reveals 2025's summer challenging 1976's record, while unsettled conditions dominate the forecast for the week ahead.
The new working week sees the beginning of meteorological autumn, ending what could be the hottest summer on record. However, looking at a calendar of Central England Temperature (CET) values going back to the mid-seventeenth century, it's going to be a close-run thing with the summer of 1976.
Since 1659, twelve summers have recorded a CET of 17C or above: 1826, 1846, 1911, 1933, 1947, 1976, 1983, 1995, 2003, 2006, 2018, and 2022. But the current year and 1976 stand out, both with mean averages close to 17.4C.
The monthly figures for 1976 were June 16.9C, July 18.7C, and August 17.6C. The 2022 figures so far are June 17.0C and July 18.4C, with August (to the 28th) standing at 17.9C. We are currently just slightly above the 1976 figures. However, taking into account the unsettled end to August, the final three days suggest temperatures will be closer to normal. This could bring the August figure down a little, so we may end up with a tie.
Despite the very unsettled conditions at the moment, parts of central and eastern England have yet to see worthwhile rain. It's a similar story today, with Sunday afternoon seeing a depression centred close to Northern Ireland. Here, blustery showers, together with the west of Scotland, may merge into longer spells of rain. In the west and south-west, showers will be frequent and heavy, with local thunder and gusty winds. Further east, after a fine start, the showers will be 'hit and miss' again but still locally heavy, possibly with thunder.
A fresh and blustery southerly wind will bring gale gusts in the west, reaching up to 50mph across the Isle of Man and along exposed Irish Sea coasts. Despite the very unsettled conditions, temperatures from north to south of between 16C and 22C will still be close to normal for the time of year.
Into the evening, eastern areas will see the showers fading somewhat, leaving clear intervals after dark. But in the west, they will continue to be heavy in places, perhaps with a flash of lightning and some thunder, mainly towards exposed coasts. A southerly wind, somewhat lighter in the east, will remain blustery in the west and in the vicinity of showers. Temperatures are not expected to fall below 11C to 14C.
It will not only be the beginning of meteorological autumn but feel like it as well, as the new working week gets off to a very unsettled start. Monday will begin fine in some eastern areas, but showers already quite frequent in the west will work their way steadily eastwards through the day. Some will continue to be heavy with thunder, particularly in the west, while a few eastern areas may be lucky enough to miss the showers.
A southerly or south-west wind, although still blustery in showers, should be somewhat lighter generally. It may feel a little chilly when a shower comes along, with top temperatures mostly in the range of 16C to 21C.
The showers will continue into the evening and, in the west, throughout the night. However, central and eastern areas will see clear intervals developing after dark. A south-west wind should also decrease a little further but may feel slightly chilly. Nevertheless, temperatures are unlikely to fall below 10C to 13C.
The remainder of the week will see further showers and some longer spells of rain, but this will need to be sustained over a much longer period if we are to replenish groundwater and our reservoirs.
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