Week ahead: No rain for most until the weekend, temperatures on the rise in the south

High pressure will be close to the west of the UK through the coming working-week and will take overall control of the weather. So, there will be little day-today change in the weather for most before next weekend, just a few local exceptions perhaps.

It will remain largely dry and warm with sunny spells and variable amounts of cloud by day temperatures reaching the low to mid-20s widely, perhaps becoming very warm or locally hot later in the week in the south, with temperatures reaching the high 20s. However, Northwestern areas will be cloudier and cooler at times, with some occasional patchy light rain or drizzle, this rain occasionally drifting further south across the north, but most stay dry until the weekend.

Little or no rain for most Monday-Friday

Monday is looking to have cloudier start in the north and east, perhaps with a few spots of rain or drizzle, staying cloudy across northwest and along eastern coasts, with further patchy drizzle, otherwise any cloud breaking with warm sunny spells.

Variable amounts of cloud and warm sunny spells on Tuesday for England and Wales, thicker cloud for western Scotland and N. Ireland – which may bring the odd spot of rain or drizzle, eastern Scotland turning sunnier.

Wednesday cloudier for Scotland, N. Ireland and northern England, with some patchy light rain or drizzle possible. Showers may develop over eastern England in the afternoon, otherwise, the rest of England and Wales dry with plenty of sunshine and warmer too. Highs of  21C in central Scotland, 26C in south Wales to 27C in southern England.

Western Scotland and N. Ireland looking rather cloudy for Thursday, with outbreaks of light rain mainly affecting western Scottish Highlands and northwest Ireland. Further south and east, it will remain mostly dry with a mix of cloud and sunny spells. Highs of around 21C in the north to 28C in the south.

Friday sees cloudier skies and strengthening westerly winds across Scotland with scattered showers affecting western coasts and N. Ireland too. Further south, dry and fine with sunny spells and fair weather cloud developing. Highs at 20C in the central belt of Scotland to 29C across southeast England, cooler towards the west.

Turning hot in the south later in the week?

There are mixed signals over the potential for more widespread and meaningful rainfall spreading southeast next weekend and into the following weekend. There does look to be a tendency for pressure to fall from the northwest next week, perhaps with an area of low pressure moving southeast across the north bringing more unsettled, cooler and windier conditions than of late - with outbreaks of rain spreading southeast across many parts by the end of Sunday, though rain may be lighter and amounts may be small in the south.

This tendency for more unsettled conditions developing from the weekend and into early next week may not last long, with medium range models suggesting high pressure will return and build-in from the southwest, bringing dry and settled conditions along with increasing temperatures. So perhaps a dry, very warm or hot start to August. Not great news for lessening the wildfire risk, for nature, farming, gardeners, water resources and other things that are desperate for rain, given no rain has fallen in over a month in some parts in the south.