We are still experiencing warm air for the first half of this week, although not the heat of last week. Fresher conditions are on the way by Friday, with cooler nights at the weekend.
There is rain in the forecast this week as an Atlantic low pressure moves by. Wednesday into Thursday turns blustery as one low moves by. Scotland will be calmer with the low centre overhead but will see slow-moving heavy showers. Southern England will become windier by Thursday lunchtime, particularly along the Channel coasts. Saturday could also turn wet and windy as another low pressure approaches, but less certainty around this one at this stage.
So an unsettled week to come with rain that gardeners and growers will welcome. There has been a reversal of rainfall from winter to spring 2026 with some very dry areas in the south and east. After last summer’s drought conditions, the recent heatwave and new May temperature record of 35.1C, along with the predicted “super” El Niño, we have to wonder what summer 2026 might throw at us and the impacts for our water supplies.
If you have noticed how dry the fields or your garden are, then each downpour feels like a blessing. For those drenched on the way to school or work, it’s just annoying.
Tuesday
The frontal rain from overnight will continue to push northwards over northern Scotland today. Aberdeen and eastern Scotland should manage 18 to 20C in any sunshine.
For the rest of Britain and Northern Ireland, it will be a mix of bright or sunny spells with clusters of showers. These will be heavy at times with the risk of thunder, away from north and west Scotland, western counties of Northern Ireland and later, away from SW England. There could be hail too, but the showers fade later today from the west.
Convective forecast into Tuesday 2nd
Tuesday late morning / afternoon- "conditions will support the development of scattered thunderstorms with hail and gusty winds, mostly across central, southern and eastern areas of England – where coldest mid-levels and steepest lapse rates will be during peak heating in the afternoon."
Tonight
There will be clearing skies and fewer showers for a time before the next low pressure brings rain to Ireland early on Wednesday. It will still be a mild night.
Wednesday
Eastern Britain will start off fine and bright as the frontal rainband moves over Northern Ireland, Wales and the West Midlands, with showery rain extending over SW England as many people head out the door. The frontal rain and cloud cover will move across the Irish Sea to the Central Belt and southern Scotland, northern and eastern England by lunchtime. Behind this band, there will be warm sunshine for Wales and England with temperatures in the high teens to low 20sC. However, a rash of heavy and thundery showers will spread over Northern Ireland. These will spread over southern Scotland and northern England during the afternoon. Southern Britain will see some showers but more bright and sunny weather, although with the risk of some lively showers for eastern England by teatime.
The showers will be moving along, circling the low centre to the northwest of Ireland. The occlusion will bring heavier rain to Northern Ireland by Wednesday evening as the scattering of heavy showers continues for the northern half of Britain, with sunny then clear spells further south and more isolated showers.
There will be more rain and showers as the low centre swings across Scotland on Wednesday night
Thursday
Fresher air will be arriving from the Atlantic on Thursday with the low centre over Scotland but windy weather for southern Britain, strong winds along the south coast. There will be areas of rain and clusters of heavy showers, again with blustery winds and the risk of thunder. Bright spells will appear, but it will be a very unsettled day and begin to feel cooler in the westerly winds.
Friday won’t be dry, but it will have more sunshine and bright spells with fewer showers, and they shouldn’t be as lively. The air will be cooler so a balance of temperatures in the mid-teens, but still strong, warm June sunshine. The low pressures at the weekend could stir up some warmer air for southern Britain, allowing temperatures to creep up towards 20C.
Next week follows a pattern of fresher air from the northwest, off the Atlantic, and pulses of warmer air reaching into southern Britain from the southwest. However, there are signs of a surge of hotter air later next week. The GFS model shows it by Thursday, 11th, but the ECM model waits until next weekend. We are in summer now, so we should expect periods of hotter weather. There is no need to go all Daily Mirror about it, “UK weather maps show new 30C heat surge days away …” Whether it is temperatures around 26 to 28C later next week or a bit higher, it is too early to say but this week will end on a cooler note and a dramatic change from the heatwave conditions of the Bank Holiday weekend.
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