Weather forecasting has come a long way from proverbs and cloud gazing which did serve farmers locally and sailors offshore quite well in the short term. However, at sea, sudden changes could be devastating for coastal communities.
Many still like the rhythm of tapping and reading a hallway barometer (you don’t need to tap it) but nowadays there are UK wide weather warnings from the Met Office, and from Met Eireann for Ireland. Across Europe and the world there is a network of national meteorological agencies helping to warn of upcoming severe weather.
Met Eireann should have a new weather warning system by the end of 2026. A move away from county-defined warnings to different shaped areas, which fit the weather better.
Back in 2011 the UK Met Office moved to an impact-based style of warning with the widely adopted traffic light red, amber, yellow colours being embraced in 2015. Met Eireann already use yellow, orange and red warnings but these still strongly link to quantitative thresholds, such as this much rain per hour equals a yellow warning and wind speeds at this level equals an orange warning.
“Given that the thrust of the Weather Warnings service is on potential “Impacts” of weather rather than on the numerical values attained by the weather elements themselves, it may on occasion be appropriate to issue warnings at a level higher than that strictly justified by the anticipated weather elements” Met Eireann
Met Eireann do consider the potential impacts but there are specific values are outlined on their website. For example, Yellow rain warning 20mm – 30mm in 6 hrs or less/ 30mm – 40mm in 12 hrs or less/ 30mm – 50mm in 24 hrs. Orange wind warning Widespread mean speeds 65 - 80km/h Widespread gusts between 110 - 130km/h. The new polygon shapes, rather than county wide warnings, will help “provide clearer direction to those at risk and support more targeted emergency preparedness”.
Impact based weather warnings look at a more holistic picture. It includes the severity of the weather, what has happened recently, timings and using a matrix, its likely impacts along with the likelihood of that occurring.
UK Met Office warning matrix
It considers location; the NW Highlands is more resilient to heavy rain and strong winds than perhaps Essex. The time of day is very important, less impacts in the middle of the night but the same severe weather on Monday morning, or for the Christmas getaway on a Friday evening would make a huge difference. Large scale events, the season or existing conditions such as already saturated ground.
As long as the end users understand how the warning system works, the impact based way can be very useful to help make informed decisions. More specific areas, no longer confined by land county boundaries, could make a huge difference. Met Éireann said that the new system will give “more precise guidance to communities” as they replace their county-wide alerts with a more localised system.
History of weather warning
The UK Met Office was founded in 1854 under the leadership of Vice-Admiral Robert FitzRoy. FitzRoy was concerned by the significant loss of life caused by unpredictable weather among the fishing communities around the coasts of Britain. Weather forecasting can be concerned with rain not spoiling outdoor events, or interrupting the harvest, but the main focus is for severe weather and dangerous conditions.
Fitzroy viewed the barometer as a significant aid to forecasting and placed barometers in a number of fishing villages along the coast. FitzRoy’s barometers saved countless lives but perhaps his biggest single impact on safety at sea with his plans for a Storm Warning Service.
He felt that the telegraph system should be used to gather observations and communicate warnings to ports and harbours. There was much scepticism at the time, even amongst the scientific community, over whether accurate forecasting was possible, but thirteen stations began to send in their observations by telegraph in September 1860 including Aberdeen, Hull, Dover, Jersey, Penzance, Galway and Portrush. More were added from around the UK and from northern and western Europe with the first storm-warning issued in February 1861.
Fitzroy's warning system - Met Office history
Visible signals were used to communicate to ships, a system of cones and drums to signal gale warnings. The system remained in use until June 1984 when it was considered that all ships could receive warnings by radio.
A new service was announced in November 1867 and the first warning issued in the new year. This storm warning service, now better known as the Shipping Forecast, has continued ever since, celebrating its 100 birthday in 2025 after Finnisterre region was renamed Fitzroy in 2002.
Morse code and Semaphore -The Guide handbook
Pre-war bulletins for shipping in the Atlantic had been issued using Morse Code and moved to daily radio transmission broadcast in June 1921. The importance of weather forecasting and warnings grew in war time. In World War I, the Meteorological Field Service provided military forecasts including warnings on thunderstorm location and fog, which grew to advising the artillery on high angle fire, assisting with warning for gas attacks and preparing for allied gas operations.
“By the end of the war, the importance of meteorology to military operations and most especially to aviation, had been proven beyond doubt.” Met Office
Radio broadcasts became a key part of everyday life. To find out weather information the public would listen to the radio or look in newspapers, with a public television service starting in 1936. Today there are forecasts for regions, nations and around the world but the initial BBC broadcasts were limited to the London area.
Food security links closely to the weather and a series of codes and warnings were developed to help manage the wartime harvest. Utility companies would have their own temperature forecasts to support demand, and electricity companies would be interested in thunderstorms. After terrible cold winters around 1940, transport services sought help after widespread disruption in the ice and snow. In World War II, codes were used to pass information to the Rail Executive forecasting when conditions would change.
Agricultural and coastal fishing communities placed great importance on weather broadcasts. There was a time when members of the public could request direct information. Forecasters who worked in Weather Centres would have tales of local farmers ranting about unwelcome rain, or the Mayor of a seaside town phoning to demand a forecast of sunshine along the coast for Bank Holiday Monday, just to entice more visitors.
Public weather forecasts resumed on 9th May 1945, the day after VE Day. Television networks had expanded and in January 1954 live television forecasts started. This new mode of spreading weather information became a key part of news programmes, as the presenters and maps became ingrained in British society.
Technology moved forward. Forecasting computer power increased, satellite imagery helped with an overhead view of what was coming at us from the Atlantic, as did a new ocean buoy network from the surface.
Pre-internet text based pages appeared on BBC and ITV, Ceefax and Teletext. This allowed viewers to check news headlines, sport scores, weather forecasts and TV listings on screens without having to wait for the next television or radio bulletin, such as the 6 or 10 o'clock news. Some people were eager, and waiting, at 6am when the Ceefax 400s pages were updated each day. There was a line at the top of the main page in capitals for warnings but there was never much space, or time after wrestling with the UK maps and trying not to lose the isle of Wight or reshape Wales when updating the clunky block system.
A new type of warning system appeared when FLASH warnings were introduced in 1988 and were issued via news channels in the form of an on-screen message to warn of severe weather. In 1990, these morphed into the National Severe Weather Warning Service (NSWWS) which is still in use today. It was one of the first items available on the first Met Office Website in 1995.
One difference between the current UK Met Office and Met Eireann warnings is Marine/sea coverage. Around the island of Ireland Small Craft Warnings are issued if winds of Beaufort Force 6 (min. mean of 22 knots) are expected up to 10 Nautical miles offshore. Gale warnings are issued by Met Éireann for Irish coastal waters, which are regarded as extending 30 miles out from the coastline, and the Irish Sea or part thereof. Other western European countries have marine warnings but not most of the coast of Britain. In recent storms, there have been wild conditions along the North Sea, but no wind or rain warnings in place.
These Irish gale warnings are distributed to RTÉ to be broadcast on television with the short weather forecast after each News bulletin on the hour. They are also sent to the coastguard for broadcasting on Marine VHF Radio Ch16.
BBC weather warning with red triangle
As part of the NSWWS, Weather Advice and Warnings appeared online, as written text and in television broadcasts. The Advice, as an early heads-up where confidence was lower, or the time frame was longer. The Weather Warnings had more certainty and could be imminent.
It was in 2011 when the Met Office moved to its Impact-based warning system. The National Severe Weather Warnings initially covered snow, ice, wind and rain. By 2018, lightning, thunderstorms, fog and extreme heat were included. Another example of how the warning systems develop and change over the decades. As our climate warms these early warnings and their call to action will be life-saving.
July 2022 saw the first Red ‘extreme heat’ warning in a week when the UK maximum temperature passed the 40C for the first time. 40.3C on 19th July at Coningsby, Lincolnshire with disruption to transport infrastructure in England. There are also Heat Health warnings, and similar for cold weather, so that medical services can prepare.
Inter-organisation collaborations
The new Met Eireann weather warnings will identify where the expected impacts will be within a county which needs local knowledge and wider expertise, such as for river flows and transport networks.
“This involves coordination with Local Authorities and National Directorate for Fire and Emergency Management (NDFEM) as the weather warning system is integrated into emergency management plans and procedures at national and local levels.”
Storm Chandra brought destructive flooding in February 2026 and there had been heavy snowfall in parts of Ireland which was not specifically pinpointed by the county-wide warning system. School closures impacted too wide an area. The UK Met Office already works closely with the Environment Agency in England, Natural Resources Wales and SEPA in Scotland but as history has shown, these new ways of working often come after serious events.
A Storm Tide Warning Service was developed after the devastating East Coast floods of 1953. June 2007 brought destructive flooding with fourteen fatalities linked to the flooding in England & Wales. Over 55,000 homes and 6,000 businesses were flooded here and Northern Ireland was also impacted. Afterwards there were questions; could flood events be better forecast, and managed?
By combining expertise in the joint Flood Forecasting Centre, there have been significant improvements in the usefulness and reliability of extreme rainfall forecasts and warnings. Later, a network of Civil Contingencies Advisors was setup to provide tailored forecasting and potential impact advice direct to emergency services and responders.
A new communications tool began in 2015 with the Storm Naming project. This started between the UK Met Office and Met Éireann with the first named storm, ‘Abigail’ in November 2015. KNMI, the Dutch Met service, joined the Western naming group in 2019 as other groups formed around Europe. These storm names run alongside the specifics of the weather warnings and we are now in the 11th year of use.
Storm Eowyn Jan 2025
Another new forecasting development from the UK Met Office is in Space Weather. Space weather can knock out satellites and mobile communications and cause significant problems for the energy industry. We have become much more reliant on these communications and specialised technology which are vulnerable to solar events. And so warnings are needed.
“Space weather describes changing environmental conditions in near-Earth space. Magnetic fields, radiation, particles and matter, which have been ejected from the Sun, can interact with the Earth’s upper atmosphere and surrounding magnetic field to produce a variety of effects.” Met Office
BBC weather chart from 1936
The path from barometers, cones & drums, semaphore, morse code, telegrams, radio broadcasts, newspapers and television have now been overtaken by our hand-held phones and on-demand information. There are even Emergency Alerts sent to our mobiles, driven by location and red weather warnings.
We are able to type in our postcode or nearby town and be presented with a location based forecast from whichever model your app links to (that is worth checking.) We are now bombarded by choice and opinion, notifications and media exaggeration. There are comments all the time; why don’t we have a warning, why is it not a higher warning, or that was a non-event!
There should be feedback and reflection, to drive improvements and keep up with technology but it is interesting to note that the criticism (and financial pressures) were too much for Fitzroy in the end, back in 1865.
Weather warnings can’t stop terrible windstorms, or torrential rain with flooding, or snow & ice that leads to delays, even overheating in hot summers. They are a tool to share quality information so that people can make informed decisions. By honing the areas affected in this Met Eireann change, hopefully the new system “will bring clarity”.
National Met. Agencies have a duty to help the public, a public weather service and includes:
Met Éireann added that the new weather warning system is part of its “overall work to improve weather services in Ireland”. Maybe the layering of numerous different warnings on the UK Met Office maps can be sorted next.
Loading recent activity...
