Did you manage to see any sunshine on Sunday, or Monday morning? Where the sun did appear it was like a joyful gift for those who have been stuck under the gloomy and wet weather. There will be more rain this week, and there is another rain warning looming for later today. This is for SW Britain where river and groundwater levels are high. There is nowhere for any extra rainfall to go, so it sits at the surface.
However, there will also be a shift later this week as one low pressure finally manages to move right across the UK, and southern Scandinavia, to the Baltic Sea. This will allow colder air from the north across the UK, after a mild start to this week and disrupt the overall stuck pattern.
This entrenched weather pattern has been the problem this year as lows from the Atlantic grind to a halt close to the UK and steady heavy rain bands swirl around. The ongoing onshore flow for eastern Scotland has brought a lot of wet weather and also snow for the mountains tops. A blocking area of high pressure over Scandinavia has slowed all progress past the UK. This high is beginning to drift away southwards over Ukraine today and then to central southern Asia. This unlocks the change.
The jetstream starts the week in its southerly position which has brought a succession of low pressures and torrential rain over Iberia. This has already resulted in devastating flooding and windstorm damage to Portugal and Spain, with further wind warnings for the start of this week.
The jet will move further north this week as meanders begin to develop but there are signs that rain for the UK, from a more usual westerly direction off the Atlantic, could return on Sunday.
Flooding concerns for the start of the week
The weather is quite mixed across the UK on Monday with areas of rain and cloud but some brighter breaks, even sunshine and NW Scotland is once again seeing fine weather. The bands of showery rain are edging northwards through the day but it is mild enough with temperatures widely around 8 to 11C.
The yellow rain warning reflects the conditions on the ground as much as the expected rainfall. “10-15 mm of rain is likely fairly widely, with 20-30 mm in some places exposed to the strong south to southeasterly winds.” There will be further flooding and the risk of travel disruption as bands of rain and heavy showers spill eastwards along southern counties of England and into southern Wales on Monday. The southeasterly wind will freshen as the main rain arrives.
Environment Agency flood warnings and alerts Mon 9th 0830 with high ground water (blue dots)
Flooding outlook for England & Wales (EA and NRW)
"Ongoing flooding from groundwater is probable for Dorset, Wiltshire, Hampshire and West Sussex over the next five days, and from rivers across Somerset. Local river flooding is probable for the River Severn over the next five days, and the Rivers Trent and Soar until Tuesday" - "Local inland flooding is probable across South Wales on Monday, and possible more widely until Wednesday."
Northern Scotland sticks at 6 or 7C and will be chilly again overnight but Tuesday looks milder with temperatures of 12 to 14C possible for southern Britain. There will only be a light southerly breeze.
The rain pattern will appear to have returned to the soggy norm with a damp, grey start for northern Britain on Tuesday morning and another band of rain from the southwest as a slow moving low centre edges in. Eastern and northeast Scotland will be back in the SE onshore flow and dreich conditions. There are yellow rain warnings through Tuesday and Wednesday for eastern Scotland with a very low likelihood of Medium impacts.
"Persistent, and at times heavy rain, will fall onto already saturated ground over eastern Scotland, which may cause further disruption and localised flooding." MO
A new frontal band will move over SW England and Wales reaching Northern Ireland to the Isle of Wight by mid-afternoon. There will be some breaks in between which would be when the temperatures could jump up but the day will end with plenty of cloudy, damp weather.
Overnight the mild air stays in the south but colder air will begin to arrive from the far northeast. The freezing level will lower over Scotland with more snow over the hills rather than just the mountains.
"Snow is likely to fall above 300-400 metres, especially across Aberdeenshire, Angus and Perthshire, where 5-10 cm of snow may accumulate by the end of Wednesday." MO
By midweek the main low pressure will arrive, the one that will manage to move towards Denmark. Wednesday will be wet in the north and feel cold, but brighter in the south and still mild. However another pulse of heavy rain could run along the Channel coast of southern England later in the day.
Thursday looks mixed again with a wet, wintry mix over central Scotland and more snow inland. A band of rain will spill eastwards over Northern Ireland, Wales and more of England as fine weather appears in the southwest. A welcome change here.
Everyone will notice a change to colder air early on Friday. With a dig of northeasterly winds there will be icy rain along North Sea coasts with sleet and snow inland. The UKV model has a band of wintry weather from the Central Belt, over southern Scotland into Northern Ireland and Northumberland into the Pennines.
Further south temperatures could be around 8C with showery outbreaks and bright spells. To the north of the frontal band there will be snow showers and, after a cold and icy night, a chilly day. The ECM model has the frontal band further south on Friday, moving more quickly. So uncertainty later this week as this clears away. The risk of frost and ice does look more likely but less so in the far south of Britain.
The UKV takes the wintry band further south through Friday over northeast then eastern England. This shows snow overnight into Saturday over the Peak District, the Welsh Mountains, even for the Cotswolds and Moors of southwest England with a drier but colder start to the weekend. Even some sunshine!
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