We have some very wet weather over the next few days for parts of the UK, with strong winds in the far northeast. There is now an upgrade to an Amber warning for inland parts of eastern Scotland as concerns rise about how the rivers will respond in this heavy and persistent rain event, accompanied by snow-melt. There will also be a bout of windy weather on Friday for SW Britain as a low from the Bay of Biscay arrives.
Low pressures from the southwest will be a theme into next week as colder air tries to edge in from the northeast, over the North Sea. There is a lot of will it, won’t it in this scenario, with the question of snow at the heart of this. The cold easterly component could bring snow showers with plunging temperatures and issues with ice, moreso in the north and east. The southwesterly, Atlantic component would bring milder air with blustery winds and more wet weather. This would increase the risk of surface water flooding. What could happen is that there is a meeting in the middle. The flow of cold air from the east and frontal bands from the west or southwest might result in a wider risk of snow, and also rain.
As you can imagine, the online weather headlines are going crazy. There are a lot of very specific numbers; “90mph gales” a gale is 39 -54mph, whereas 90mph is hurricane force and seems unlikely, maybe as gusts. 30” snow to Scotland- at the top of Cairngorm. 66 hours, that’s 2.75 days and very specific, not 3 days but more than 2 and a half days. An Arctic bomb, no northerlies here. A “nine-day storm bringing 30” will bury every inch of UK” just getting a bit silly now.
So, trawling through all that, there is uncertainty. There are these two main ingredients but the models vary about which side wins out or where they mix.
This weekend
The pattern of low pressures in the west or southwest, bringing unsettled weather, will continue. Closer to the low there will be lots of showers and on Friday strong winds for SW Britain, later along the English Channel and through the Irish Sea overnight. Throughout this week and the weekend, the southeasterly flow off the North Sea will continue for northern Britain. This will bring a lot of rain to the high ground of central/E/NE Scotland, where there are rain warnings.
The low pressure which arrives from the southwest during Thursday night and Friday will allow the flow off the North Sea to back to an easterly. Colder air will reach the far north of Scotland and overall, temperatures will dip away for the weekend.
The precipitation falling over Grampian will turn more wintry with snow over the mountains which will subdue the rate of rain heading into the river systems (for now until it melts) with some rain at lower levels and Inverness remaining in the drier rain shadow area.
Elsewhere across the UK, it is a mixed picture, with bands of showery rain swirling off the low in the southwest. However, there will also be gaps with sunny spells and fair weather. Temperatures will be around 5 to 9 Celsius, which isn’t bad for January; it’s just that it has been a bit milder this week. By next week, it looks like nighttime temperatures will be lower but there is uncertainty about which areas will be in the colder air from the east or the milder Atlantic air from the west. Shetland will be in the colder air over the weekend and temperatures for the Up Helly Aa winter fire festival next Tuesday will be around 1 or 2C by day. It will feel sub-zero in the evening with snow forecast by midweek.
If you are heading out this weekend, perhaps for a walk, it is likely to be soggy underfoot. For the Scottish hills and mountains, conditions will be tricky with the ongoing strong winds, the wet weather and rising river levels but also the risk of wintry weather and snow as cold air creeps in.
The UKV chart for Monday evening shows a weather front from the west sweeping in against that colder air over northern Britain. There is sleet and hill snow along with heavy rain. We will see how things develop over the next few days as the uncertainty remains.
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