Parts of Scotland, particularly Grampian, are in for a soggy few days with the risk of flooding and even travel disruption. Network Rail in Scotland is considering speed restrictions for the rest of the week on sections of the railway in northern Scotland. There is the possibility of further disruption on ferries to the Northern Isles, with some services already cancelled.
Around the Moray Firth and for the Northern Isles, there will be strong SW winds, even gale to severe gale force winds for exposed coasts and hills with rough seas into Thursday. As well as the windy weather across Scotland, there will be persistent rain in places.
The UKV forecast rainfall totals for 24 hours Weds through til Saturday ending at 03 or 06z the following night
Low pressures centred to the SW of the UK will keep eastern Scotland in a southeasterly flow, which will bring moist air off the North Sea this week. As this flow moves inland, it is forced upwards against hills and mountains. This ‘Orographic uplift’ causes the air to cool, condense and precipitation falls. The Met Office has issued a three-day yellow warning for rain with a low likelihood of medium impacts. It mentions heavy and persistent rain over high ground with
“Rainfall accumulations of 30-60 mm are likely fairly widely inland, with as much as 80-120 mm possible over the highest ground exposed to the brisk southeasterly winds.” Met Office
For months last year, NE Scotland was in drought with endless water scarcity concerns. However, northern Scotland was buried in deep snow at New Year, which took over a week to disappear. There has also been some heavy rain to add to the snow melt and with these wet few days, flooding seems likely with “significant flooding” possible according to the Scottish Flood Forecast. This would be surface water and river flooding and there is still residual snow to melt. There is some uncertainty about whether the precipitation will fall as rain or snow later this week over high ground.
“Rainfall totals will be smaller in coastal areas, but strong onshore winds and large waves at times will be additional hazards.” MO
Along the east coast, take care with spray and wave overtopping in places and the spring tides. The Moray coast and Inverness will be more sheltered in the rain shadow of the Cairngorms.
Netweather Radar showing frontal rain heading north through central Britain with a shadow visible from the cloud shield over central Scotland. Top ten windspeeds and satellite cloud cover 11:40 Wednesday
There is an old trailing occlusion over the far NE of Scotland bringing rain and a warm front surging up from the Bay of Biscay through the UK today with more rain. This is followed by patchy rain and milder air. Although it won’t feel great in the blustery winds and damp weather, this flow is from a mild direction with temperatures peaking at 10 to 12C on Wednesday for southern Britain. The cold front ends up over western Britain into Northern Ireland by midnight.
The southeasterly flow for eastern Scotland remains, even as things change away to the southwest of the UK. The bands of rain and showery outbreaks wander about on Thursday, often away from eastern England by day but setting in again for central and eastern Scotland by Thursday night.
A low pressure in the central Mediterranean has been causing very unsettled conditions with flooding for North Africa and wild seas around the Balearic Islands. This was named Storm Harry by the Southwestern group. Next, we have Ingrid, named by the Portuguese Met Service, which will bring wild conditions around the Bay of Biscay with warnings already in places for Portugal, NW Spain and NW France. After a clear, cooler night for SW Britain on Thursday night, this low pressure will approach the UK.
‘Ingrid’ will bring a band of rain over SW Britain for the start of Friday. This is no Goretti! It will sound windy during Thursday night as the easterly picks up ahead of the low and the winds could strengthen further during the day on Friday. Coastal gales look possible for Cornwall, with a scattering of heavy showers into Saturday.
The rain, and increasingly hill snow, over inland Scotland just continues through Friday with chilly winds as colder air reaches over the Northern Isles into Scotland and NE England. Temperatures here will only be 4 to 6C by Saturday.
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