Potential for earliest 30C on record on Thursday and also a risk of thunderstorms

Tuesday was another very warm, dry and sunny day for many, with temperatures reaching the mid-twenties celsius across parts of England and Wales. Temperatures look set rise even further over the next few days, with temperatures in the south looking to peak on Thursday - perhaps reaching 29-30C across southern England.

The dry and sunny weather continues over the next few days for many, thanks to high pressure centred close to the east keeping skies clear while drawing in very warm air from the southeast off the near continent.

Northern areas saw a fair amount of cloud today, but on Wednesday clearer skies should be more widespread further north, so temperatures will correspondingly be higher than today. We could see temperatures widely reaching the mid-twenties Celsius across England and Wales, perhaps up to 27C in London and SE England. The exception to the generally dry, very warm and sunny picture will be northern Scotland and N. Ireland - where a cold front moving in from the northwest will introduce more in the way of cloud and some showers later in the afternoon and through the evening. A line of showers spreading east across Scotland Wednesday night while fresher air floods in from the west too.

Air thicknesses increasing on Thursday across the south, so temperatures higher ...

Another very warm and sunny day on Thursday across England and Wales, perhaps locally hot across southern England - thanks to quite high air thickness of the airmass spreading out of the near continent. Temperatures reaching 25C in Cardiff, 26C in Norwich, 27C in Birmingham, 29C in London. One or two spots could reach 30C in the London area - if this happens - it would be the earliest in the year 30C has been reached on record. The earliest 30C has been reached on record still stands at 30.6C on 12th May 1945 in Camden Square, London. 

However, the unusually early heat combined with an increase in humidity from the south, falling pressure from the southwest and breeze convergence developing could all come together to trigger some heavy showers and thunderstorms across SW England, south Wales and perhaps into the Midlands in the afternoon and evening. The showers and storms will be very hit-and-miss, but if you catch one - it will be slow-moving - with hail and also locally intense rain with localised flash-flooding.

Risk of heavy showers & thunderstorms developing Thursday afternoon.

Further north across Scotland and N. Ireland - cooler and fresher Atlantic air with variable cloud and sunny spells here following a cold front pushing down into northern England - where cooler conditions will arrive Thursday evening. Some showers, perhaps heavy, along the cold front moving southeast across southern Scotland and later NE England.

Cooler and fresher air pushing down across the north on Thursday will continue south on Friday behind a weak cold front, which will have little or no rain along it by then, but it never really makes it further south than the Midlands and north Wales on Friday, so remaining very warm and sunny for south Wales and southern England - perhaps reaching the mid-twenties across SE England. To the north of the cold front, variable cloud with some sunny spells, but mostly dry, temperatures reaching 14-17C.

It looks to remain dry and settled over the Bank Holiday Weekend, thanks to high pressure building in close to the northwest. However, there will be a drop in temperatures - thanks to the flow coming from the north on Saturday, then veering northeasterly on Sunday. Most places will be sunny, but eastern coasts could become plagued by low cloud and some light showers off the North Sea on Sunday and Monday.