Should we be concerned about this year's dry weather?

Over recent months we have seen a lot of dry weather. Sometimes with lengthy spells of sunshine others with gloomy, grey skies. March was the sixth driest on record for England, the driest since 1961. Muddy land and waterlogged paths have drier out, which might be good news if you are heading out for a countryside walk. Many will have been enjoying the fine weather and warm sunshine, even if the air has continued to have a bit of a nip to it. In the past week, there has been some rain. For England, rainfall totals for the week ranged from 6mm in NE England to 37mm in SW England.

Sunshine anomaly for March 2025 MO, April anomalies Sum of 24 hr sunshine reports at 0600Z w.r.t full month climate

Farmers, however, are praying for rain. Wales and southwest England did finally receive some decent rain this month but northeast Britain has hardly seen any in April, following a dry March.

March 2025 rainfall anomaly MO, April rainfall anomalies Sum of 24 hr precipitation reports at 0600Z wrt end of month climate.

Northern Ireland, central and southern Scotland and the far north of England all saw a dry winter, the traditional season of replenishing rains. This followed a dry Autumn for Scotland, Northern Ireland and Cumbria as central and southern England had a wet season.

Netweather forum Spring-2025-chat-and-moans - Horsham W.Sussex, Planted the main crop potatoes on my allotment today and whilst it has been very dry for a good five weeks, even though the surface of the soil looked dry, there was still plenty of moisture just below the surface

Farmers and the UK weather have had a long difficult relationship. As our climate changes, there will be more issues caused by extreme weather such as heavy rain, runoff and waterlogging. Then prolonged dry spells such as some regions are experiencing currently impact crop quality and yield. Slower to grow, smaller and more stressed. Farmers are advised to diversify but that has financial implications. Also to vary crops for resilience, whatever the weather will throw at their land in the future. 

Higher overall temperatures may be good for growing some crops but this recent spell of cold, frosty nights and then a dramatic change by day in the sunshine to warmth will have caused stress. For some, their Autumn planting encountered flooded soil or machinery caked in mud as field operations became impossible. Now the lack of water is impacting growth but also expensive fertiliser isn’t penetrating into the soil as the wait for rain continues in the northeast.  And there is always an eye on winter animal feed, will the grass be enough as the cycle continues?

 It does seem that our weather patterns are getting stuck. We had a dull, cloudy and dry start to the year, followed by high pressure with clearer skies. There were concerns about wildfire risk. The jetstream has dived away to the south in recent months taking low pressures towards Iberia with miserable conditions for Spain and Portugal. Good news for their water supplies though.

Weekly precipitation across England and Wales for the past 6 weeks. UKPP radar Env. Agency

New reservoirs are being built here in the UK but there has to be the rain in Autumn and Winter ready to store for the drier part of the year. In some parts of the UK that has not occurred in the past half year, mainly in the north and parts of East Anglia. 

For Wales “The water resource position of Welsh Water’s area of supply is relatively strong” 

Much of the water resources in Wales originate as surface water, either from reservoir storage or river abstractions. In times of low rainfall, the river levels will change quickly and that can create a vulnerability. Hence the relief at the recent rains for Wales. There is little dependence on groundwater supplies for NW and mid-Wales. 

In Scotland, autumn/winter rain and snow are key to water scarcity in the months to come. Groundwater and refilled lochs are important as in the spring and summer more water is lost from the water system than is received in the drier, sunnier, warmer months. Groundwater supplies usually get stocked up in autumn and winter and are slow to react, unlike river levels. Scotland saw its 5th driest autumn in 100 years and groundwater levels are still low in eastern Scotland. The Scottish Water Scarcity reporting starts in May and usually runs through until September.

"Without significant above average rainfall in spring and summer, there is an increased risk of water scarcity occurring early in the season." SEPA for Scotland

North Aberdeenshire “weather here has been very dry. I have recorded 2.4mm of rain this month…Any late barley planting this last week has seen clouds of dust trailing the tractors. Having to water the garden now, the  new planting that was done in autumn and early March appears to be “cryin oot “ for a drink.” Netweather Community Forum Scotland thread 

Our changing climate could bring more summer rains. Sudden thundery downpours don’t help so much in the summer either as they can lead to flash flooding and the water just runs away quickly to the sea (and that causes other issues with sewage overflow).

Total rainfall between 1st - 24th April 2025 07:00  (SYNOP, SEPA, EA, NRW, 1367 reports). Starlings Roost Weather

Cheshire  “It was very dry at [the] Golf Club yesterday. Some brown grass in places that hadn't been watered. The fairways were like concrete it was that dry.” Netweather Forum Spring-2025-chat-and-moans

So although you may be enjoying the feeling that spring has arrived with the sunshine, flowers and birdsong (although we wait for next week for the warmth) any lengthy lack of rain should create a niggle for all of us. Water scarcity or drought isn’t just about the summer months and heatwaves. 

“East Sussex been very dry here for a few weeks, and as nice as the sunshine is, we do need rain.” Netweather Forum SE-london-and-East-Anglia-weather-discussion

Some of our very traditional crops need a lot of water, such as potatoes, onions and carrots. Wheat and barley are suffering out in the fields. Northern Ireland will see a decent amount of rain for the end of the working week and NW Scotland looks wet at the weekend but otherwise, there is more dry weather on the way with warmth from the south.