Spring warmth, including the weekend, but back to winter cold next week

Not quite so cold last night across the south, though a few spots fell close to or just below freezing. The coming nights will be generally frost-free as milder air spreads up from the south across all parts while bringing unseasonably warm temperatures where there’s sunshine. However, don’t be fooled by this taste of spring warmth, as it looks likely winter will bite back next week, as winds swing round to come from a northeasterly direction, pulling in much colder air from Scandinavia.

But for now, southerly winds over the next few days will waft in milder air which will allow temperatures in the sunshine today to reach 16-17C across eastern England, a good 6-7C above the average high for early March, 13-15C elsewhere across England and Wales. Northern Ireland and Scotland will be mostly cloudy but dry, so not so warm, though rain will push into the far northwest. Also turning cloudier with showers breaking out across the west.

Temperatures tomorrow a little down on today’s values, thanks to more in the way of cloud and some showers spreading north, but they could still reach 11-16C, maybe even the odd 17C. Showers will be generally across the west and north, best chance of sunshine in the east.

The weekend is looking fine, as high pressure re-asserts itself after briefly relaxing to end the week. A low pressure system developing northwest of Iberia by the weekend, bringing showers tomorrow, may bring some showers across the far southwest early on Saturday, but generally most places becoming dry over the weekend - with increasing amounts of sunshine. The southeasterly breeze will be mild, so temperatures will respond, with temperatures reaching 12-15C, perhaps 16C across SE England both days. Cloudier, with some rain across far north of Scotland initially on Saturday, while a cold front lurking to the southwest may bring showers to Devon and Cornwall.  The southeasterly flow will bring in some moderate pollution off the near continent on Sunday across England - something to bear in mind for those with respiratory problems.

24hr Accumulated precipitation for Saturday & Sunday - looking mostly dry!

All change next week though, as the wind turns easterly and strengthens, so temperatures will start drop while a cold front pushes in across the south bringing cloud and showers here, with generally more in the way of cloud elsewhere too, thick enough for patchy drizzle. 

Turning much colder from Tuesday, as winds turn northeasterly, pulling in cold arctic air from Scandinavia by Wednesday. Temperatures by day are forecast to reach 5-7C at best on Wednesday, Thursday and Friday, falling to around or below freezing at night - especially where skies clear. 

Turning much colder next week

The cold air crossing the slightly warmer North Sea and also weak surface heating over land in sunny spells beneath cold air aloft will also generate cloud and some showers - which will be wintry in nature, with graupel, sleet and perhaps even snow perhaps falling but not settling by day given dew points below freezing but air temperatures too high for it to settle away from high ground. Some temporary accumulations overnight can’t be ruled out though. 

Some wintriness possible from showers next week

However, if you want to escape the cold arriving next week for some warm sunshine, Southern Europe is probably not the best bet, as it looks like becoming increasingly wet over the next 10 days, starting across Iberia, where it’s already been wet in places all week, then episodes of rain and storms spreading east through the Mediterranean next week:

This is thanks to the jet streak shifted much further south taking the Atlantic low track much further south across southern Europe. Even the Azores, Morocco and Canary Islands look unsettled and wet. This is signature of a Negative North Atlantic Oscillation (-NAO) - with high pressure over Iceland compared to normal and lower pressure over the Azores and Portugal compared to normal.