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High to low pressure switch underway with eyes on Hurricane Kirk's track

High pressure fades as low moves in from west. Ex-Hurricane Kirk may bring disruptive weather to S/E England midweek. Unsettled conditions expected, followed by a brief cold snap. Long-term outlook suggests milder, settled weather late October.


Issued: 5th October 2024 13:43

The last couple of days have been quiet with a weak area of high pressure covering the British Isles. However, this is set to change over the weekend as the high pressure fades and moves away eastwards, allowing low pressure to move in from the west.

Temperatures over England and Wales are forecast to be mostly above the long-term average during the coming fortnight due to frequent southerly and south-westerly winds, albeit probably mainly due to warm nights (rather than warm days), because of frequent cloud and rain. However, a cold snap is anticipated late next week and into next weekend, with colder, brighter, showery weather temporarily taking hold.

Hurricane Kirk is tracking eastwards through the North Atlantic

Hurricane Kirk forecast track

The main talking point during next week will be the remnants of Hurricane Kirk. A week ago it looked like this had potential to affect the British Isles around 10 October, and the current set of forecast model runs have this low heading into the west or north-west of Europe around 10-11 October.

There is plenty of uncertainty around the track of this low. Some models have it missing Britain and heading through France and causing further disruption in central Europe. However, other model runs have this low deepening and heading into southern England, which could bring some disruptive weather with heavy persistent rain and strong, possibly gale force, winds for much of eastern and southern England in particular. South Wales also has potential to be strongly affected. At present it looks unlikely to have much of an impact on the weather in Scotland and Northern Ireland, but there is still scope for this to change. 

GFS prediction for Kirk

ECMWF forecast for Kirk

The depression will transition into an extratropical depression rather than a tropical storm as it approaches western Europe, so we are not expecting an impact from a full-on tropical storm. In addition, it is forecast to weaken substantially as it heads through the eastern North Atlantic. However, it will contain more warmth and moisture than your average mid-latitude depression, and so there is some potential for it to bring damaging winds, depending on the extent to which it deepens as it heads into western and north-western Europe.

The UK weather outlook through to the end of next week

Today looks set to remain dry for most, though with cloud amounts increasing from the south-west. The more unsettled regime will set in on Sunday, but to begin with it does not look likely to be unusually wet. There is potential for some thundery activity, particularly near the English Channel coast, but generally for the southern half of England.

Animation of the rainfall on Sunday

A band of rain will push north-eastwards through the country on Sunday, and it looks probable that Monday and Tuesday will have a mix of sunshine and showers, the showers heavy and thundery in the south, but with parts of central and southern Scotland and northern England remaining dry. There is, however, potential for some longer outbreaks of rain to persist at times in northern Scotland, and for some more general rain to come into eastern England on Tuesday, though this could end up staying out in the North Sea.

Potential for very wet, windy and disruptive weather via ex-hurricane Kirk arises during Wednesday and Thursday, especially for southern and eastern England as noted earlier. After that, between Thursday and Saturday we can expect much colder, brighter weather to push in from the north and north-west, with sunshine and scattered showers for most of the time. There is potential for some overnight frost towards the end of next week, particularly in Scotland, and there will probably be snow on high ground in the north, with significant falls possible over the Scottish Highlands. 

The longer term outlook

After the anticipated cold snap late next week, it looks probable that Britain will move into a warm and changeable south-westerly type with the jet stream pushing north, resulting in the wettest weather transferring to the usual areas, particularly western Scotland, while southern and eastern Britain will often see the driest weather. There are hints that high pressure will gradually build from 
the south as we head through the second half of October, and so there is the prospect of a more settled spell of weather in the last third of the month. It is too early to say whether it will become predominantly sunny, because anticyclonic gloom can become an issue at this time of year as the relatively weak solar heating of late October can allow low cloud to persist in an anticyclone, but it should generally turn drier into late October.

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🥸😱

ECM !!!! 😍😍😍

Good call @Georgina😁😁

Defo improved ecm this morning!!phew!!ukmo and gfs the best though!!

192 ECM is fine,jet passing southern England,looks nice and quiet around Greenland,we should have the cold locked in now final frames

Ali1977 Could do without that developing low at sw Iceland though .

joggs
joggs | 8 Minutes Ago

Dry cloudy start normal temps

Temp 6C, low 5.3C, Barometer 1038mb steady, Wind F2 NNE, Rainfall Nil

The PIT
The PIT | 11 Minutes Ago

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