A mixed weekend with a sunny start on Saturday before rain creeps in from the west. The southerly winds bring milder air and it will feel pleasant for early October, in sheltered sunshine.
High pressure is giving way to a large Atlantic low pressure for the end of the week. Friday will be fine and dry for much of Britain although there will be showery outbreaks of rain from the west for Scotland and over Northern Ireland today. Milder air is wrapped up with this low as blustery southerly winds set in for Saturday. The brunt of the wet weather will arrive over southern Ireland on Saturday afternoon where there are Amber warnings for rain. Wet and windy weather will reach Cornwall, Devon and Pembrokeshire on Saturday evening with rain extending up over Northern Ireland, the Isle of Man and the west coast of Scotland.
By Sunday the winds will have backed to a southeasterly and the occluded bands will continue to bring a lot of cloud and outbreaks of rain. Heavier pulses are showing on the UKV model at the western edge on Sunday, drifting across Britain during the day. So something to watch for those areas with saturated ground or still flooded from the late September rains. This setup is mobile, the rainbands and low pressures continue to move through. So it’s not worrying that there will be persistent rains stuck over southern Britain for days but there will be another significant low pressure next week, ex-Hurricane Kirk.
A nippy start for much of England with mist, even fog patches possible. The southerly winds will be light but there will be sunshine and a fine day with temperatures around 16C. London 18C in the sunshine. Wales will see a bit more early cloud but soon brighten up with sunshine. The west coast will have moderate to fresh southerly winds but light inland. Temperatures of 15 to 17C with Cardiff at 16C. For Scotland, it will be a bit mixed but there will be a lot of fair weather around. Central and eastern Scotland should see bright spells and only light winds with only occasional patchy rain extending in from the west. Inverness and the Moray coast could reach 17C. The outbreaks of rain will reach Northern Ireland and western Scotland during the day with impactful rain for the southern and western counties of Ireland.
Met Eireann: Very heavy and persistent rain, with highest accumulations in mountainous areas of Kerry and west Cork. Impacts- River and coastal flooding, Dangerous travelling conditions and Travel disruption.
As the heavy rain reaches SW Britain there will be coastal gales into the night. It will be milder in the south than on Friday night but temperatures will dip into single figures for northeast Britain with some clear spells.
Sunday will be a mixed day with humid, mild air warped up with the low cloud and outbreaks of rain. At times, the cloud cover will thin and break and it will feel pleasant. There will be some isolated heavier showery downpours but not many til lunchtime. Tempeatures will again be 14 to 18C. There should be a clearer brighter interlude from the west later in the day, allowing sunshine but ahead of this, a band of showery rain will invigorate and could spoil the end of the weekend as it moves from Northern Ireland into the Central Belt of Scotland. Another arm is forecast to move from SW Britain across southern England to London and East Anglia by Sunday evening. The same low pressure sticks around for the start of the new week bringing lots of showers with to the UK with sunny spells in between.
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