There is a risk of showers this evening to see in the New Year. Tomorrow will start promising but rain spreading in for the afternoon and evening. Unsettled much of the week, southern areas wettest and windiest. High pressure looks to build next weekend, so turning drier but colder.
December has been very wet and dull across Britain, though there has been a north-south divide in temperatures. Despite a cold first few days to the month, it’s been mild or very mild for the rest of the month across much of England, Wales and N. Ireland. For England it’s been the 5th mildest on record, with temperatures 2.1C above the 1991 – 2020 climate average. Scotland, though, has seen some colder weather at times interspersed with milder spells – so temperatures have been just above average for the whole month.
Image courtesy of Starling Roost Weather
2023 ends on a rather wet and windy note, with squally heavy rain and strong winds passing through many areas yesterday afternoon and evening then frequent showers in places today too. Following the very wet weather over recent days, there are 41 Flood Warnings in force this evening across England, many of them along the River Severn in the west of England and 180 Flood Alerts. Everywhere apart from some eastern counties have seen over 100mm of rain this month, some locations in the Lake District over 700mm, upland areas of Wales 300-400mm. So the ground in very saturated with any further rain not able to soak in the ground and leading to swollen streams and rivers easily prone to bursting their banks.
As we head into the beginning of 2024, unfortunately the weather looks to remain similar, with low pressure in charge throughout the coming week. So, there will be further spells of rain at times, but with the jet stream further south, more active frontal systems will move across the south focusing most of the heavier and more persistent rain along with stronger winds across southern Britain. Rainfall will tend to be more from showers in the north. Further rain falling on already saturated ground could cause some flooding issues this coming week across England.
But there is light at the end of the wet tunnel though, low pressure looks to finally move away east while high pressure looks to finally build in from the southwest next weekend, though some uncertainty where the high will position exactly in relation to the UK. But it looks to turn drier, while we could pull in colder air from Scandinavia too for a time, bringing a risk of overnight frost. Eastern and southeastern may see the coldest air and also a risk of a few wintry showers.
From low pressure this coming week to high pressure next weekend
Back to this evening and seeing out 2023, with low pressure over northern Britain, showers today will linger into the evening in places, almost anywhere prone, away from the Highlands of Scotland -where it will be drier and clearer. So, it will be worth taking a brolly if you are outdoors to see in the New Year. But there should be some drier and clearer spells between showers. Blustery winds across the south should ease by midnight too. It will turn chilly though tonight, falling to 4 to 6C across England, Wales and N. Ireland, 2-4C across Scotland.
New Year’s Day looks to have a mostly dry and bright morning after a chilly start, just the odd shower around in the north. However, cloud and rain looks to arrive across the southwest by late morning, before spreading northeast across England and Wales through the afternoon.
Much of Scotland could stay dry until the evening. If you are taking a New Year’s Day swim, here’s the sea temperatures.
Rain and hill snow through Monday night across Scotland, clearing east further south. But then after a bright start, Tuesday turning quickly wet and windy from the west across England and Wales, with potential for gales across southern areas, something we’re keeping a close eye on. Scotland seeing sunshine and showers.
Showery and windy for the rest of the week, particularly windy in the south at times, perhaps a longer spell of rain on Thursday across the south. Winds looks to veer northerly on Friday, so turning colder, with showers turning wintry across the north over higher ground.
Then turning colder next weekend, as low pressure moves away east onto the near continent and high pressure builds in from the west, pulling in colder air from the northeast from a cold Scandinavia. Some uncertainty whether there’ll be any wintry showers in the cold northeast wind, but these most likely towards SE England and East Anglia. Becoming drier elsewhere, risk of frost overnight where skies clear.
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