Mild but cloudy weekend in store, very wet in the northwest, mostly dry elsewhere

High pressure will build north across England and Wales over the weekend, so it will become largely dry for many and milder too, with an anticyclone centred over northern France and low pressure towards Iceland pulling in a southwesterly flow from the sub-tropical North Atlantic. However, the air will be quite moist, so will bring a lot of cloud, with drizzle over western hills. Meanwhile, a slow-moving frontal boundary across the far north will create lift of the mild and moist air flooding in from the southwest to bring persistent rain across western Scotland. The rain in the far northwest enhanced by orographic lift of high ground to bring up to 175mm locally. This could bring localised flooding and travel disruption. It will be windy too over the weekend across the north, with gales at times.

An atmospheric river of warm moist air flows northwest to the UK all the way from the sub-tropical N Atlantic, bringing a mild weekend, but also fueling copious rain along a frontal boundary over western Scotland.

Today

For now, after a chilly start in the east, high pressure close to the south will keep much of the UK dry today, a warm front moving in off the Atlantic will bring increasing amounts of cloud from the west for many though, thick enough to bring some outbreaks of rain across western Scotland, patchy drizzle further south over western hills and coasts. Best of any brightness or sunny spells across central and eastern areas of England. Light winds across the south, but a strengthening southwesterly wind across the north, perhaps touching gale force in the northwest this evening. Temperatures reaching 8-9C across the east, 10-13C across the west.

Mild and moist air with extensive cloud cover will continue to spread east tonight, so frost-free overnight, cloud thick enough to bring drizzle over hills and coasts in the north and west, outbreaks of rain and windy across western Scotland.

Weekend

A feed of mild and moist air from way to the southwest over the North Atlantic will bring a lot of cloud for many on Saturday, with further drizzle over western and northern hills and coasts. A frontal system across the far north will bring heavy and persistent rain across western Scotland through the day, enhanced by the lift of higher ground. It will be windy here too, with gales on exposed coasts and hills. Perhaps some brightness or sunny spells developing across southern and eastern England. A mild day, temperatures reaching 11-13C across all parts.

Heavy and persistent rain will just keep on falling across western Scotland Saturday night and into Sunday morning, so rainfall totals will be piling up and likely to cause some flooding issues with potential for travel disruption. Up to 175mm could fall over higher ground of western Scotland – with a Met Office Yellow Rain Warning in force.

The cold front bringing the rain across western Scotland will start to sink southeast on Sunday, bringing outbreaks of rain down into N. Ireland, northern England and north Wales through the day. Remaining damp across western Scotland, with further patchy rain or drizzle, but not as wet as overnight. Eastern Scotland mainly dry and perhaps bright. South Wales, central and southern England largely dry but cloudy, though some brightness or sunny spells developing towards the southeast. Windy across the north. Temperatures reaching 12-14C, highest temperatures could be across eastern Scotland with the foehn effect here.

Next week

Monday’s looking mild, breezy but mostly cloudy again, with a waving frontal boundary bringing outbreaks of rain or drizzle across northern and western areas throughout the day. SE England and East Anglia perhaps remaining mostly dry. Clearer and colder but showery conditions arriving across northern Scotland behind a cold front moving southeast during the evening. Temperatures reaching 12-14C.

Some uncertainty, but Tuesday could be wet for a time across large parts of England and Wales, as a frontal wave moves east across southern Britain. Colder and brighter conditions for Scotland, N. Ireland and far north of England, with showers in the northwest – eventually spreading southeast to all parts in the evening, as the rain clears east further south.

The rest of the week looks to see a strong northwesterly flow, bringing showers or longer spells of rain across northern and western areas, drier and brighter towards the south and east of England. Although Wednesday will be on the chilly side in the brisk wind, milder air looks topple in around high pressure to the west for a time Thursday, raising temperatures, before colder air returns from the northwest for Friday, cold enough for showers to fall as snow over Scotland, especially higher ground. Potential for stormy conditions later in the week across the north, with gales developing.