The UK faces ongoing flood warnings as persistent rain continues. Further ahead, the forecasting models are hinting at the possibility of drier, colder weather arriving in the second week of November.
The weather remains in a soggy rut, as complex low pressure continues to park itself over or in the vicinity of the British Isles. At the time of writing, we still had 68 flood warnings and 169 advisories up and down the country, coupled with several yellow weather warnings of further rain over the next few days. These include the East of Scotland where copious amounts of rain have fallen, particularly around Angus, as slow moving troughs continue to plague the northern half of Britain.
So expect further travel disruption from flooding both today and into the new working week. The soggy weather is also making life difficult for farmers, which could ultimately percolate down the food chain. Unfortunately, the very wet weather is set to persist into the first week of November, as more Atlantic systems move in. However, there could be the hint of a change into the second week of the new month, when a change in circulation pattern may bring drier but colder weather down from the North.
Overnight, we've seen some heavy rain moving north, which is currently across southern Scotland and North East England. The rain should eventually clear from the North East before becoming slow-moving over southern Scotland. Further North, there'll be frequent blustery showers, particularly across East Scotland where we certainly don't need it at the moment. Further North still, it'll be finer across Orkney, but a strong and gusty North East wind will feel cold.
Northern Ireland sees showers, some heavy, particularly at first, with the remainder of the country also subject to showers, once any mist, low cloud, and patchy fog has cleared. There'll be some sunshine, especially in central and eastern areas, where some parts will miss the showers altogether. But where you see them, some will be heavy giving gusty winds and maybe a crack of thunder.
Away from the showers, winds will be lighter, but towards Kent and along much of the South coast, a South West wind will be more noticeable with the showers more frequent. The West and particularly Irish Sea coasts will also be more prone to showers. Top temperatures only 7 or 8°C in the far North, but across England and Wales expect a milder 12 to 15°C.
Central and eastern areas see clear spells after dark, with light winds allowing mist and patchy fog to form overnight. But showers will never be far away, most frequent over Wales, the South West, and Northern Ireland, where some will be heavy with still the risk of thunder, chiefly in coastal areas. The rain over southern Scotland may creep a little further south, bringing some relief to the flooded areas across East Scotland, but there'll continue to be showers here too. The North, however, will be somewhat drier but with a cold and gusty North East wind. A southerly wind may also be fresh along the South coast and towards Kent, but temperatures shouldn't fall below 4 to 6°C in the far North and 7 to 10°C further South.
Monday brings further showers, but they shouldn't be as widespread or as frequent in generally lighter breezes, allowing sunny spells to come through. Some of the showers could still be heavy though, with showery rain continuing to affect the East and South of Scotland. It'll be colder in the North with top temperatures only about 7 or 8°C again, but milder across England and Wales where 12 to 16°C is more likely.
