Second tornado outbreak later today in USA, 5 days after a deadly outbreak hit the same areas

Meteorologists and emergency planners have their eye on the next weather system which will bring another round of severe storms today across some central and southern states of the USA, with potential for more strong tornadoes for the same areas which saw a deadly tornado outbreak on Friday.

On Friday, several strong tornadoes hit parts of the south and Midwest - with some communities in the states of Arkansas, Tennessee, Iowa, Illinois and Indiana particularly badly hit. The death toll rose to 32 on Sunday following the severe storm outbreak on Friday – which spawned 65 tornadoes over seven states. Some of the stronger tornadoes flattened homes and businesses, ripped roofs off buildings, splintered trees and sent vehicles flying.

Last Friday's severe storm outbreak map, tornado reports are the red balls:

The small town of Wynne in the east of Arkansas 50 miles from Memphis  – where at least four people died – took a direct hit from a violent EF3-rated tornado, leaving a trail of destruction. EF3 (Enhanced Fujita Scale) tornadoes have maximum winds of 165 miles per hour. Wynne High School and First United Methodist Church were destroyed, along with several homes and businesses which were also reduced to rubble.

Also, a separate violent, estimated high-end EF3, tore through the northern side of the city of Little Rock, the Arkansas Capitol, with many homes in the tornado’s path sustaining roof or wall damage, some were destroyed, with only concrete steps and foundations remaining.

Deaths were also confirmed across a wide swathe of other states, with multiple victims in Arkansas, Indiana and Tennessee. Three of the deaths were in Memphis: Two children and one adult were found dead after police responded to calls about trees that had fallen on homes. Nine others died in McNairy County, Tennessee. There were also at least five deaths in Indiana and four people killed in Illinois, including one person who died after the roof of the Apollo Theatre in Belvidere collapsed Friday while more than 200 people were gathered for a heavy metal concert. State and local officials also reported one death in Alabama, Mississippi and Delaware.

Even before Friday's outbreak, there had been more than 300 tornadoes so far this year, and according to Storm Prediction Center data, it was the third-most-active start to a year on record in the U.S. In late March, a devastating outbreak in the South killed more than 20 people in Mississippi and Alabama and followed several previous outbreaks. On the same day before another tornado outbreak unfolded, U.S. President Joe Biden on Friday consoled families of victims and toured scenes of devastation in Rolling Fork, a Mississippi town, after storms last week killed 26 people and destroyed homes and property in Mississippi and Alabama. Joe Biden and first lady Jill Biden drove through Rolling Fork, Friday afternoon, viewing the damage left by a powerful tornado that reduced many of the community's 400 houses to unrecognizable debris.

So what’s behind these repeated severe weather outbreaks across central and southern USA?

Last Friday, a low pressure system moving in from the west, with warm dry air behind it and warm, humid air flowing northward to the east from the Gulf of Mexico created a classic set up for severe storms and tornadoes.

Severe storms began forming by late morning, forcing the National Weather Service to issue its first "high risk" warning of the year, with two 30% probability tornado areas. At least three tornadoes were confirmed by mid-afternoon, in addition to damaging high winds and huge hail.

Last Friday's Tornado Outlook with probabilities:

A similar pattern to last Friday is expected to set up today, but amplified by greater heat and humidity, increasing the risk for severe weather. Similar areas of states look to see highest tornado probabilities too, with two separate areas, like last Friday issued by the US Storm Prediction Center. One Hatched Area for a 10% or greater probability of EF2 - EF5 tornadoes within 25 miles covering western Iowa, northeast Missouri and northwest Illinois. Another Hatched Area covering far northeast of Texas, north and west Arkansas and much of southern Missouri. However, for the southern risk area, severe storms look like they won’t develop until after dark, with an atmospheric cap or lid preventing storm development during the day.

For the northern hatched tornado, which covers eastern Iowa into parts of the Great Lakes states, the Storm Prediction has this stark forecast:

   Any supercell that develops in this

   region during the afternoon will pose a threat of very large to

   giant hail. Very favorable low-level and deep-layer shear will

   support a threat of strong tornadoes as well for as long as any

   supercell traverses the warm sector along/south of the warm front.

For the southern hatched area, which extends from NE Texas across Arkansas into the Ozark Plateau, just as alarming, particularly as it suggest a nocturnal tornado threat:

   Any nocturnal supercells will be capable of all severe

   hazards, and the concern remains regarding the potential for

   nocturnal strong tornadoes from near the ArkLaTex region into parts

   of southern MO.

 

A powerful jet stream moving in from the Plains was moving Friday's storms as fast as 70mph, and a similar effect is expected today. Those kinds of high winds tend to increase the risk for long-tracked tornadoes, such as the March 24th tornado that devastated Rolling Fork, Mississippi.

Like last Friday, a powerful jet stream will sweep across the Plains, increasing the risk of severe storms:

There will be some live streaming of these storms from storm chasers tracking them on the ground, there are some websites were the live streams can be found:

Live Storm Chasing 

Severe Studios