Scottish weather - for July Trades, trips and school holidays

Holidays are getting underway and for many, making plans this year has been difficult enough without the British weather. Trades Fortnight is about to start in Lothian. Many Scottish schools have already finished week one of the summer holidays. I bumped into someone who was off to another part of Scotland on holiday. They said casually “I hope the weather is good”. I paused, said, “Have a good time!” and left.

For the first half of July, it’s not all bad but there is a troublesome low pressure on the way for next week.

The June summary data is out, showing that Scotland was much drier than average, sunnier and also warmer. It has been very wet down south. July so far has seen strong sunshine making it feel warmer than the air temperatures on Weather Apps would suggest. And there is still so many hours of daylight.

Low cloud or haar lurks around the coasts and the breeze can make it feel cold but it’s been a good start to summer. Through the weekend the weather turns unsettled with heavy showers working their way northwards on Saturday but there will still be sunshine and drier weather ahead of this.

Weekend

Hefty downpours arrive for SE Scotland across to Fife during Saturday afternoon. It will be more sheltered for the west coast, Glasgow up to 22C. 

By Sunday, there will be plenty of scattered showers inland with sunny spells in between. Temperatures of 17 to 22C which is warm enough and with light winds will feel pleasant. Edinburgh with a slight east wind will reach 18C at best. 

5th -9th July

Next week’s weather looks to be dominated by an incoming Atlantic low pressure. There are already concerns for the amount of rainfall and potentially strong gusty winds as this arrives later on Monday for SW Britain but by Tuesday it looks to have swung north and will bring wet, blustery weather across Scotland.

There has not been a named storm since February when the Dutch Met Service (who are now in the western naming gang with Irish Met Eireann and UK Met Office) named snowstorm Darcy. There is no suggestion at this point that this will be a named storm. Next on the list is 'Evert' but there seems to be a reluctance to use the names. However, last summer August 2020 saw two named windstorms, Ellen and Francis

Storm Ellen hit campers in western Britain, swept away “iconic” beach huts. There was flooding, ferry cancellations, escaping fish farm salmon and some very unseasonable weather.

Just a few days later, Storm Francis arrived and threw more heavy rain and gales at the UK, bringing further summer chaos for holidaymakers. There were power cuts, fallen trees and landslides. There might be more of us holidaying in the UK this year but the reason many usually head abroad is that the UK weather can not be relied upon.

“These were two of the most notable August storms in the UK in the last 50 years. Met Office.

So, a summer low pressure can still have impacts. Although the roads may be quieter from commuter traffic, people are still moving about; by road, rail and on ferries. Heading off on holiday, visiting family after a long delay, going camping or just hoping for a day at the beach or in the hills. 

Just worth keeping an eye on this low pressure for next week. It will take its time edging northwards through midweek. So, the easterly wind of Tuesday with heavy rain is followed by heavy, showery downpours. Gradually replaced by a cool north-westerly, bringing showers to Highland. A more unsettled picture for those making their way along the NC500 route. After such a dry June, there is a heightened risk of grass fires and the Scottish Fire & Rescue Service are asking people to take extra care this summer. With BBQs, cigarettes and litter, particularly glass bottles which can focus sunlight.

Improving

After that, there are signs that high pressure will return. This would bring more settled weather, with light winds and drier conditions. A bit warmer too by next weekend and hopefully 11th until 17th will continue with that more settled theme.