Autumn weather, how would that look on a painting, in a book? Frost and fog, still chilly air or a wild storm with wind and rain swirling all the yellow and red leaves about?
This week we will see both faces of autumn with a mild start turning cooler. Murky, grey skies with morning mist and fog lifting to something brighter. The calm, still high pressure setup is overtaken by Atlantic lows bringing heavy rain from the west and strengthening winds, even gales around western coasts. It is a time of large shifts. High pressure to low. Still air to strong winds and gales. Southerly winds to westerlies but the mild conditions don’t fade completely. Temperatures stay above average into the weekend, there will just be some cooler nights as the week goes on.
The skies vary across the UK early on, some are cloudy and grey with murk, particularly in the south and SW. Further north more chance of brighter skies, even sunshine. Showery outbreaks of rain have brought an unsettled start to the working week over southern Britain and any extra rainfall in coming days brings the risk of surface water flooding with wet ground and fallen leaves causing drainage issues.
Daytime temperatures would usually be between 7 to 11C on average in November. With mid-teens continuing this week it is mild, even very mild for the time of year. This unusual southerly flow keeps bringing the mild, moist air our way until a cold front forces its way over Britain on Wednesday night.
From then onwards, bands of heavy frontal rain push in from the west, one after another into the weekend. This will result in rising river levels and soggy ground mainly for western Britain and Northern Ireland. The Environment Agency aren’t highlighting anywhere in particular at the moment in their five-day forecast but mention the risk of “local flooding”. These bands of heavier rain don’t linger but the cumulative effects could bring impacts later in the weekend for Northern Ireland, Wales, NW England and western Scotland.