A new forecast from the UK Met Office predicts another warm year globally as the heating continues.
Will there be another big heatwave in the UK next summer? That’s what Nick Finnis was asked this week. He declined to give a specific forecast that far ahead, we’ll concentrate on the run up to Christmas and the rest of winter for now.
The Met Office has issued a more pressing type of forecast today, one that should get more attention; that next year looks warmer once more, globally.
The Met Office global temperature forecast suggests that 2019 will be close to record warmth, due to climate change and the added effect of a moderate El Niño in the Pacific. “The forecast for 2019 would place next year amongst the five warmest years on record, which would all have occurred since 2015.
Graph showing global average temperature relative to the 1850–1900 baseline. The grey line and shading show the 95% uncertainty range. The forecast value for 2019 and its uncertainty range are shown in black and green. Met Office
Earlier this month Professor Richard Betts from the UK Met office said that “Global heating” was a more accurate term than “global warming” to describe the changes taking place to the world’s climate at the UN climate summit in Poland #COP24
“Global heating is technically more correct because we are talking about changes in the energy balance of the planet,”
So summer heatwaves, when they do occur will be more intense, but also if heavy rains come they will be more severe with a higher risk of flooding.
The Met Office forecasts the global average temperature for 2019 to be between 0.98 °C and 1.22 °C, with a central estimate of 1.10 °C, above the pre-industrial average period from 1850–1900. Over a degree warmer on average.
Professor Adam Scaife, head of long-range prediction at the Met Office, said: “Our forecasts suggest that by the end of 2019, 19 of the 20 warmest years on record will have occurred since the year 2000.” 2015 and 2016 were the two warmest years on record since 1850, this is happening now. To break a global record the larger effects of rising levels of greenhouse gases need to combine with additional El Nino warming. A modest not strong El Nino is forecast. for 2019
The Bureau of Meteorology, Australia issued their El Nino forecast on the 18th. There is a possibility of El Nino in our spring 2019
From the Climate Change conference in Poland, the focus was on three key themes: Technology, Man and Nature with the main objective looking at finalising the "Paris Agreement Rulebook" an operating manual for counties to follow ready for 2020. Seen as too late by some. Our world is heating up, climate change is the biggest threat we face. It should be on the agenda of everything, it is already impacting our lives and will do even more as this heating continues.
