More rain today with the risk of localised flooding. The easterly flow keeps it cool in the NE this week but sheltered, sunnier western parts will do okay, with temps. in the high teens in the south.
Temperatures this morning range from 9 or 10C in SW Britain to only 4 or 5C in the northeast. If you are exposed to the fresh east wind it is feeling chilly and that flow from the east will continue this week. It brings a fair amount of cloud, pockets of rain but there will be sunny spells and warmer air drawn up from southern Europe. All a bit mixed over the next few days but, away from the east coast) temperatures could reach the high teens. And next week could get even warmer!
This morning we have a warm front across Britain bringing a lot of rain, grey skies and general dampness. There are a few Flood warnings and alerts for river and groundwater flooding, areas which have not recovered from the weekend’s heavy rain with this lot adding to it. Localised flooding is likely for Wales and England with SW and NE England being identified particularly. Hence the two yellow rain warnings from the Met Office. The ground is near saturated and high river levels could continue into midweek.
The frontal system is bringing a lot of cloud and murk to the UK. However, it isn’t reaching NW Scotland, the Western Isles have glorious sunshine. Holes are already appearing in the cloud to the SE of the frontal band. Within the warm sector, so between the warm front (the main rain) and the cold front which will move across the Channel around lunchtime, we have the potential for temperatures to leap up in any sunny breaks (17C) whilst other areas stay grey and cool (13C).
The main rain band moves north through northern England, north Wales into Scotland, then this afternoon across the Irish Sea to Northern Ireland. Then it will be worth watching the radar as heavy, thundery showers from the Channel Islands into southern England, rotating from SE across to SW England through the afternoon into the evening, clipping southern Wales too.
Meanwhile, the frontal rain chunters northwards, with heavier rain for eastern Scotland, with the front over the far north of the mainland by midnight. It will be mild overnight for southern Britain, but the brisk east wind will make it feel cool elsewhere.
Wednesday
Tomorrow the warm front rain will be clearing away to the north and more rain and cloud will be feeding into Britain from the North Sea. The area affected has fluctuated recently, with East Anglia, the Midlands and Wales looking more prone today, rather than northern England from yesterday’s run of the models. The rain could be over the Thames estuary and London bringing another damp start, there is a fair amount of uncertainty. There will be a lot of cloud from the North Sea, right inland with western fringes more likely to see sunshine in the morning. Northern Ireland will brighten up and there should be sunshine for western Britain by the afternoon. Southern England could also see sunny spells and a few showers breaking out.
Again, temperatures in the brighter parts will be in the mid, maybe high teens, but the east coast in the wind will be cold at 7 or 8C.
Through Thursday and Friday, this unsettled pattern continues, with cloud and bands of rain flowing in from the east. Bright or sunny spells in between with brief warmth, take your coat, don’t be fooled.
Next week
From Sunday onwards, temperatures could nudge into the low twenties. If the winds swing around to the south, the chilly North Sea coasts could see a real change and there are signs that much warmer air from Africa could be pulled up to the UK by the middle of next week. It will be back to school for many parts of the UK after the Easter holidays, the weather is bound to improve. After the cold and wet days that children and carers have tromped through so far. The high over Scandinavia might be able to hold fine conditions for Britain but Atlantic fronts do look like bringing rain bands over, at least, Ireland.
Nick Finnis's thunderstorm Forecast for today.
