Quiet again in the Atlantic, but Japan braces itself for Typhoon Neoguri
8th July -Remnants of Hurricane Arthur now near to Greenland and will influence weather in the north Atlantic this week. Giving a bit of oomph to the UK weather with some heavy rain for the UK later from the West.
Far out in the Pacific is TS Fausto, no current action in the Atlantic. In the western Pacific, Typhoon Neoguri is causing concerns in Japan as it lines up to make a direct hit on the main islands west to east on Thursday 10th. The remote island of Okinawa is under Emergency warnings with Kyushu already on red alert. However, Neoguri will be over cooler waters by then and is expected to hit Kyushu only just at Typhoon status maybe TS and then weaken further as it moves over the mountainous terrain of southern Japan
4th July- Now at Hurricane status, Arthur has moved up near to the Carolinas on the east coast of the US. Gusts of over 80mph have been recorded. There are warnings of storm surge for N.Carolina's outer banks up to 5ft, and also into Virginia and Cape Cod. Large and damaging waves are expected. Rip currents and dangerous surf is already causing problems off beaches as holidaymakers continue to swim in the seas pre-storm. These areas are also at risk of torrental rain/flooding and tornadoes. Mandatory evacuations have occurred for some of the islands along the N.Carolina coast as Arthur arrived as a Cat. 2 hurricane for the holiday weekend. The heavy rain warnings extend into Mass. and Rhode Island as Arthur skims past to the east. Heavy rain could interrupt many 4th July plans, firework displays are already being delayed, but the worst of the winds are expected to miss places like New York
Warnings are also out to prepare in New England, New Brunswick, Nova Scotia and Newfoundland this weekend, further north on the east coast. http://weather.gc.ca/hurricane/statements_e.html
1st July - here we go, Atlantic action has started. And this system looks like becoming a Storm today and then Hurricane as it moves up the Eastern Seaboard this week. The Carolinas will be watching the forecast as what will become Arthur, strengthens and moves north.
For today , a tropical storm warning is in place, for later for East/Central Florida into the NE Florida tomorrow with up to 4" rainfall likely. The Bahamas are also within the warning area with GRand Bahama and the island of Andros threatened with up to 6" of rain during Wednesday. http://www.bahamasweather.org.bs/index.php?page=storm-advisories
In the Pacific TS Douglas is well out at sea, but newly formed TS Elida is closer to SW Mexico. She will move west out into the ocean but at the moment there are warnings for heavy rain for Mexican states of Colima, Michoacan and Jalisco, up to 5" rain. The system hasn't moved very much and so the rain just keeps on in the same area. Tropical storm winds and swells causing dangerous surf and rip-currents will affect the area.
30th June Tropical Storm Douglas out at sea in the E.Pacific, high chance of another storm forming nearer the SW of Mexico
Also High chance of cyclone formation east off Florida, could be the first Atlantic storm of the season, which may head to the SE US.
10th June Tropical Storm Cristina
In the E.Pacific (still nothing in the Atlantic)
Out at sea but causing large swell and surf to the South coast of Mexico, with some dangerous rip currents.
Forecast to move westwards out inot the ocean and strengthen to hurricane status.
Tropical Storm Boris- Came from the Pacific and moved over SE Mexico on Tues 3rd June, bringing torrential rains to Mexico and Guatemala. Some areas have reported a foot of rain and there have already been fatal mudslides.
The disorganised remnants are in the southern part of the Bay of Campeche, still bringing rain and Thunderstorms to the area. Re-invigoration of a storm is considered unlikely as the upper level winds are so strong, but the wet weather is still causing concerns.
May
This week is Hurricane Preparedness Week, highlighting the risks of storm surge, heavy rainfall, inland flooding, high winds, tornadoes, and rip currents. The National Hurricane Centre (part of the US NOAA agency) run this campaign each year as the season begins. Pacific season May 15th and Atlantic season 1st of June
And out in the Pacific we have Hurricane Amanda.
This was a very strong storm for this early in the Eastern Pacific season. She seems to have peaked at a Cat. 4 storm and will weaken now, moving northwards. If it does then drift NE, it could affect the West coast of Mexico next week. Last year, saw devastation from storms sitting off the Pacific coast of Mexico, bringing torrential rain and lethal mudslides. So, although Amanda is well out at sea at the moment, the rainfall from this system still has the potential to cause problems.
There are a few changes to the forecasts being issued this year. One superficial but handy one is that the Discussion and Outlook will be in mixed case, which will be nice after reading the robotic UPPER CASE wording over many years. The forecast cone is to be smaller, generated by historic forecast errors around radii of circles to make up the cone with progress over time. So the area forecast to encounter the storm will now be smaller and so potentially more accurate.
A new experimental forecast will start this season. NHC will issue the Potential Storm Surge Flooding Map for the Gulf and Atlantic coasts of the United States alongside the Tropical Cyclone warnings
Pronunciations have been issued i.e. Bertha BUR-thuh for all the storm names. Good news for broadcast meteorologists. Manuel and Ingrid are being retired as storm names due to the devastation and deaths caused in Mexico in the 2013 season. The pre-selected names are on a 6 year rotation, male/female following most letters of the alphabet (no Q, U, X, Y,Z)
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