Whilst parts of England see sunshine and heat, western Scotland and Northern Ireland have to contend with wind and rain to start Friday. The frontal band of cloud and rain will be a lingering boundary between fresher air away to the northwest and the building heat over England. This heat looks to spread and intensify early next week. Will we see Extreme Heat warnings from the Met Office early next week? The June high temperature records could fall, for England and Wales.
Update 11am - Amber Extreme Heat warning now issued for Monday/Tuesday
Temperatures will be in the high 20sC and the low 30s C. Possibly closer to 35C by Monday or Tuesday next week in England and 33C for Wales. The June UK record is 35.6C at Southampton Mayflower Park on the 28th June 1976 (and also Camden Square, London 29th June 1957, but with some reservations about that observation). It is possible that this June record for England could be broken in the coming heatwave. The record for Wales is 33.7°C from the 18th June 2000, at Machynlleth in Powys, which might be worth watching early next week.
During the weekend, the distinct boundary will fade as high pressure builds. This will bring a fine, settled picture with bright or sunny spells. The heat will spread over southern Britain on Sunday and then surge northwards on Monday. However, there are signs that an easterly flow could take hold on Monday, which would hamper any temperature rise for northeast and eastern Britain. The North Sea is still quite cool.
Heat still around in a week's time
Beyond that, the heat remains. The GFS model shows the heat remaining and surging past northern Scotland on Thursday, in a week’s time. The heat could linger until the end of June, until it finally clears from the west. The ECM model isn’t as keen on the northward reach for the heat next week. Monday into Tuesday looks warmer for Scotland with a surge of heat later next weekend and the end of June. Again, it shows a clearing eastwards of the warmth with fresher conditions from the Atlantic.
The Met Office Global model shows the same spread of heat across southern Britain on Sunday, the surge northwards of heat Monday into Tuesday, with a temporary cooling in the far north on Thursday. All the time, the heat remains further south over England and Wales.
European heatwave
Heatwave conditions will continue for western and central mainland Europe. Paris, and many departments in France have amber heatwave warnings with temperatures up to 36 or 37C, even 40C by Sunday into Monday. Local records for June are already being broken in France. The heat looks exceptional here in the coming week.
It is not only the heat by day, but 'Tropical Nights' are expected when temperatures don’t fall below 20C. This hinders the body's recovery from the heat stress of the day. This increases the fatigue and health risks, particularly for the elderly, young children, those with chronic illnesses, and exposed workers. The UK could also see a few Tropical Nights, but across in continental Europe, the intensity of the heatwave is really taking hold.
In Spain, Madrid has a yellow weather warning with 38C mentioned by Sunday. There are amber heat warnings for the southern interior with up to 40C possible. Germany also has a risk of high heat stress on Friday, through the Low Countries, Switzerland, Austria and Italy. This is a widespread and intense event.
The UK
Here in the UK, we do not have any heatwave or high temperature warnings from the Met Office at this time. In the severe weather warnings library, there is the option for Amber and Red Extreme Heat warnings.
We are likely to qualify for official heatwave status in some parts of England, maybe Wales by Monday next week. Three consecutive days at or above the threshold temperature for that region.
You may have seen the Amber Public Health England Heat-Health-Alert. This is a service for health and social care providers, not the general public and is only available in England, so shouldn’t be used as a substitute for wider warning of high temperatures, or to highlight likely impacts. It’s not available in Wales where there could be record breaking June heat by early next week.
There was the late May heatwave when the UK's May maximum temperature record was broken. That has now been verified, at 35.1C at Kew Gardens, west London.
For those areas facing days of high temperatures, humidity and warm nights, there is advice on the UK Government website.
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