The unsettled conditions this week look to continue through the weekend, as further areas of low pressure move in off the Atlantic to affect the UK. A fairly deep low arrives off SW Ireland tonight before weakening as it drifts east across southern areas tomorrow, but it will bring coastal gales to the southwest and far south, along with outbreaks of rain across England and Wales through Saturday. Sunday is looking drier and brighter across the south, as high pressure builds, but further outbreaks of rain likely across the north.
Today will be fairly benign compared to previous days this week, with a ridge of high pressure building in, so most places will be dry today, with sunny spells and variable cloud amounts. Showers will develop in the southwest and also Scotland and N. Ireland, but most will be light on the whole.
Next area of low pressure lurking to the southwest will bring wet and windy weather tonight and tomorrow
The next area of low pressure waiting in the wings to arrive later has been deepening over the mid-North Atlantic over the last 24 hours, from an innocuous low around 1007 hPa in depth southeast of New Foundland 6am yesterday to around 991 hPa at 6am this morning.
The low will only deepen slightly as it arrives off SW Ireland tonight, before weakening into Saturday as it drifts east, but it will bring gales across southern Ireland, Celtic Sea and around coasts of SW England and south Wales tonight, along with outbreaks of rain spreading northeast across most of England and Wales by dawn.
The low will drift east across southern England tomorrow, weakening as it does so, but push outbreaks of rain, locally heavy in the morning, northeast, before turning more showery in the afternoon, with sunny spells too. A windy day across England and Wales, especially in the south, with coastal gales through the English Channel at first before easing. Turning drier during the evening, perhaps a fine and sunny end to the day in the west. Scotland looks to stay drier and sunnier tomorrow, with just a few showers. Temperatures reaching 16-19C.
Saturday showery across England and Wales, Scotland drier. Sunday see rain then showers in the north and west, drier further south and east.
Sunday turns drier and brighter for much of southern, central and eastern England. Cornwall, perhaps Devon, Wales, northern England, Northern Ireland and Scotland cloudier, breezier with outbreaks of rain or drizzle at times, rain heaviest across the northwest, Rain turning to sunshine and showers in the northwest later. Warmer in the south, perhaps reaching 20C in London, mid to high teens elsewhere.
A band of rain across northern England and Wales Sunday night will slide eastwards across England Monday morning, locally heavy in places, before clearing SE England and East Anglia. Drier and sunnier conditions following elsewhere, though showers for northern and western Scotland, N. Ireland and western coasts further south. Temperatures a little below average.
Tuesday and Wednesday look to see a brisk cool and showery westerly flow in place across the UK, so both days starting mostly dry and bright in the east, showers from the word go in the west, then heavy showers developing widely by the afternoon – with a risk of hail and thunder.
Uncertainty grows between weather models for Thursday and Friday, with a few indicating a new low pressure system rolling in off the Atlantic somewhere across the UK bringing a spell of rain followed by showers, though one model also shows high pressure building in. Most likely it will continue unsettled though – looking at ECMWF ensemble guidance, which tends to be most reliable at a week ahead or more.
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