Post-Storm Dave warmth short-lived as cooler north-westerly air takes over from Thursday onwards

After Storm Dave's run across the country over Easter, the wind has dropped and a southerly flow is pulling warm air up from the continent. London, the southeast, Manchester and Bristol will reach around 21°C this afternoon, with Glasgow up to 20°C, which is several degrees above where early April normally sits. Northern Ireland and the west of Scotland have more cloud and a chance of rain later, but the bulk of the country is dry and bright.

Wednesday will be the warmest day. With high pressure just about holding out to the east the UK and the southerly wind continuing, the southeast could reach 24°C. Bristol should hold in the low twenties, Birmingham and Manchester around 20°C, and Cardiff stays in sunshine. A weak weather front will be moving down from the Northwest during the day, which could bring a few spots of rain to Scotland and Northern England, but is most likely to just bring some additional cloudcover with it. Tuesday night is dry for most, though clear skies and light winds could leave patches of mist or fog across southern England by dawn, mainly in sheltered valleys.

The change starts on Thursday, as the southerly fades and a cooler flow takes over. Rain spreads across western Scotland and Northern Ireland through the morning, then pushes south and east during the day. Temperatures will start to step down noticeably: Glasgow into the mid-teens, Bristol around 15°C, and although the southeast could keep some warmth for a time, it'll begin to lose it as cloud thickens and showers arrive. Even on Tuesday, the contrast between low ground and the hills is worth watching, with the Cairngorms and the West Highlands seeing south-easterly gusts of 50 to 60 mph. Anyone planning to be on Scottish summits this week should check the forecast before setting out.

Friday and Saturday turn cooler and windier across the board. Highs settle around 9 to 10°C in the north and 13 to 14°C in the south, roughly twelve degrees lower than Wednesday's peak in the southeast. The gusty wind backs round to a southerly on Friday as the next Atlantic system approaches,, then swings into the south-west on Saturday. Snow becomes possible on higher Scottish ground, with showers turning wintry above about 500 metres in the West Highlands on Thursday, and the freezing level lowering a touch as colder air works in behind.

Sunday stays changeable, with sunny intervals and showers trading places through the day and the heaviest rain favouring the west. Temperatures are close to the early April average across most of the UK.