The Easter weekend UK weather looks rather changeable and unsettled. Friday looks not-so-Good with wind and rain as low pressure moves by. There is a lot of uncertainty around the forecast for Saturday as another low pressure forms, throwing bands of rain across the UK but with the possibility of warm air over southeastern Britain. Next, a possible change to colder conditions on Easter Sunday from the northwest.
If you are heading to Europe, or just thinking you should have booked to go to sunnier climes, the Mediterranean has a stubborn low-pressure system churning away near Italy. This will drift eastwards with showers for Greece and Turkey by the end of the week. Further west, Spain and Portugal will do better with settled weather and sunshine. Some of the models are hinting at things warming up through Iberia into southern France by Easter Monday. Before that, temperatures here will be in the low to mid 20s Celsius in the run-up to Easter.
Temperatures for Easter Sunday can vary greatly, not just with the amount of sunshine, or which airmass is across us, but also the date, as it is a movable feast. Back in 2019, temperatures across Britain reached 21 to 24 °C across the UK nations with a late Easter. This year, Saturday might reach the mid-teens, maybe 18C and feel fine in SE Britain if any sunshine appears. Easter Sunday looks colder for everyone, with snow over northern hilltops.
Good Friday
There is a strong signal for a deep low pressure to move past the northwest of Scotland on Friday. This would bring frontal bands of rain across the UK, followed by brighter skies but plenty of showers. Temperatures will widely be 8 to 12C.
Close to the low centre, there could be strong winds and gales with possible disruption to travel in the Highlands and Islands. It will be a windy, unreliable day across the UK. The strongest winds will last into the night for the Northern Isles as colder and clearer weather spreads southwards over England. There will be snow showers over the Scottish mountains.
Saturday
The ECM model develops the next low pressure system to the west of the UK. This might allow a better day over SE Britain with warmer air and the chance of sunny spells. The latest GFS model has the frontal rain over Scotland and Ireland earlier and it edges over Wales during Saturday. The Met Office Global model takes the frontal band northwards through Britain on Saturday, with a wet day for Northern Ireland.
There is uncertainty about the reach northwards, interrupting the cold air and how much cloud cover will remain over England.
For London this weekend, the possibility of fair weather on Saturday, although gusty, temperatures could be higher if the sun appears. Sunday will feel colder with a high chance of blustery showers in a westerly wind.
Easter Sunday
Taking account of Saturday’s uncertainty, Sunday does look colder, particularly for Scotland and Northern Ireland. Showers will continue for northwestern Scotland with sleet and hail. Elsewhere, perhaps bright spells but a nip in the air. Bank Holiday Monday should be milder.
Glasgow this weekend showing rain and a chilly feel to the day with strengthening winds. Sunday will feel much colder with a biting wind and wintry showers. This output is showing snow, so we will have to watch this.
Fire risk
As April begins, more people will be getting outdoors, heading to the countryside, even if we still need our coats, hats and probably waterproofs. It is a time for reminders: about dogs on leads to protect the pregnant ewes and newly born lambs, that the weather can be fickle at this time of year, from brilliant sunshine and sheltered warmth at home to squally showers and a biting northwest wind out on the moors.
Although some parts of the UK saw a very wet winter, it was drier than average for Snowdonia, the Pennines and much of the western half of Scotland into the Central Belt. Winter rainfall is very important and regardless of the air temperature, conditions on the ground can lead to a heightened risk of fire spreading.
There is often plenty of dry fuel (twigs, leaf debris etc) lying and if a fire does occur, strong winds will quickly spread the flames with rural areas often hard to reach.
Cairngorms National Park now has a Byelaw banning fires and BBQs in the National Park from 1st April to 30th September each year. Last year, there was a drought in NE Scotland with significant water scarcity into the autumn. The UK’s largest wildfire ever recorded burned nearly 100,000 hectares in mid-summer 2025 around Carrbridge and Dava Moor.
“The Scottish Fire and Rescue Service (SFRS) recorded a total of 241 wildfire incidents throughout the year, with 109 wildfires in April alone.” ScotGov
As our weather patterns change, the threat of wildfire is greater than ever, even when it isn’t that warm outside here in the UK. The fuel is lying on the ground; it is usually human activity that brings the initial flame.
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